You've read all the articles, made your own position rankings, studied coaches tendencies, and so on and so forth, but how much will this really help you when draft day comes around?
Yes, doing all of these things will have you more prepared than many of the other owners in your leagues, but there is one more thing that you can do that will put your draft preperation over the top...Mock Drafts.
Seriously, what better way to learn than by experience? Do a handful of mock drafts in the weeks leading up to your big money draft, and you will be infinitely more prepared to nail that sleeper as late as you possibly can and end up with the best team possible.
My favorite Mock Draft is on ESPN, but there are many other sites out there with mocks like; Yahoo!, fantasyfootballcalculator.com, and www.fantasyfootballhub.com/mock_drafts.html along with many others.
Friday, June 26, 2009
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Other noteworthy draft picks
19.) Atlanta Hawks-Jeff Teague: Point Guard-Wake Forest
After posting a terrific season for the Deacons, Teague was drafted by the Atlanta Hawks. He figures to be one of the first off the bench each game and should provide some instant offense for them.
Projected line: 9.0 PPG 2.0 RPG 3.5 APG 0.70 SPG 45% Fg 38% 3P 80% FT
35.) Detroit Pistons-DaJuan Summers: Small Forward-Georgetown
Summers is a big, strong, athletic wing player with a nice skill set. He does need a little work refining his outside game-mainly ball handling and his jump shot, but given. Given his size (6'8" 245), he could see some additional time at PF if the Pistons go small.
Projected line: 4.0 PPG 3.0 RPG 1.5 APG 0.40 BPG 0.40 SPG 45% FG 35% 3P 72% FT
36.) Memphis Grizzlies-Sam Young: Small Forward-Pittsburgh
He's currently stuck behind the uber-talents named Rudy Gay and OJ Mayo, but Sam Young should find some minutes. He's a savvy scorer and a good defender, so if an injury opens up extra PT for him, you need to consider him.
Projected line: 7.0 PPG 3.5 RPG 1.0 APG 0.70 SPG 45% FG 33% 3P 74% FT
55.) Portland Trailblazers-Patrick Mills: Point Guard-St. Mary's
Half way through the year, Mills was a projected mid first round pick, but a midseason wrist injury somehow turned him into a borderline draftable guy. He could push Bayless for playing time.
Projected line: 7.5 PPG 1.8 RPG 2.0 APG 0.6o SPG 42% FG 30% 3P 84% FT
After posting a terrific season for the Deacons, Teague was drafted by the Atlanta Hawks. He figures to be one of the first off the bench each game and should provide some instant offense for them.
Projected line: 9.0 PPG 2.0 RPG 3.5 APG 0.70 SPG 45% Fg 38% 3P 80% FT
35.) Detroit Pistons-DaJuan Summers: Small Forward-Georgetown
Summers is a big, strong, athletic wing player with a nice skill set. He does need a little work refining his outside game-mainly ball handling and his jump shot, but given. Given his size (6'8" 245), he could see some additional time at PF if the Pistons go small.
Projected line: 4.0 PPG 3.0 RPG 1.5 APG 0.40 BPG 0.40 SPG 45% FG 35% 3P 72% FT
36.) Memphis Grizzlies-Sam Young: Small Forward-Pittsburgh
He's currently stuck behind the uber-talents named Rudy Gay and OJ Mayo, but Sam Young should find some minutes. He's a savvy scorer and a good defender, so if an injury opens up extra PT for him, you need to consider him.
Projected line: 7.0 PPG 3.5 RPG 1.0 APG 0.70 SPG 45% FG 33% 3P 74% FT
55.) Portland Trailblazers-Patrick Mills: Point Guard-St. Mary's
Half way through the year, Mills was a projected mid first round pick, but a midseason wrist injury somehow turned him into a borderline draftable guy. He could push Bayless for playing time.
Projected line: 7.5 PPG 1.8 RPG 2.0 APG 0.6o SPG 42% FG 30% 3P 84% FT
NBA Draft-Fantasy spin 1st half of 1st round
1.) Los Angeles Clippers-Blake Griffin: Power Forward-Oklahoma
While being the most talented player in the draft, he won't have a huge impact fantasy-wise next season because of the logjam at the front court positions.
Projected line: 13.5 PPG 8.0 RPG 1.5 APG 1.5 BPG 47.5% FG 65% FT
2.) Memphis Grizzlies-Hasheem Thabeet: Center-UCONN
Tremendous upside pick, he won't see a ton of time as a rookie simply because he is so raw and unpolished. He'll come off the bench his first year and could provide a decent amount of blocks, but little else.
Projected line: 3.5 PPG 5.0 RPG 0.5 APG 1.75 BPG 48% FG 65% FT
3.) Oklahoma City Thunder-James Harden: Shooting Guard-Arizona State
Possibly the most complete player and pro-ready player in the draft, he could step in and contribute immediately. He plays with a few other scorers though, so he may be a 3rd or 4th option his first year in the league.
Projected line: 15.0 PPG 4.5 RPG 3.5 APG 1.25 SPG 45% FG 32% 3P 75% FT
4.) Sacramento Kings-Tyreke Evans: Shooting Guard-Memphis
A natural scorer, Evans might still be a year or two away from being able to contribute consistently on this level.
Projected line: 9.0 PPG 2.5 RPG 2.0 APG 0.70 SPG 44% FG 28% 3P 72% FT
5.) Minnesota Timberwolves-Ricky Rubio: Point Guard-Spain
Apparently the second coming of the great Pistol Pete, the 18 year old Rubio is the biggest risk/reward and/or upside pick of the lottery. It will probably take him a few years, at least until age 20 in my opinion, for him to be a consistent force in the league.
Projected line: 6.0 PPG 2.0 RPG 5.0 APG 0.55 SPG 43% FG 32% 3P 77% FT
6.) Minnesota Timberwolves-Jonny Flynn: Point Guard-Syracuse
Very interesting pick, considering the T-wolves JUST selected another promising pick less than 5 minutes before they picked Flynn. The Syracuse product is an extremely quick and talented PG with solid finishing ability and distribution skills. Will probably be more effective than Rubio in Year One.
Projected line: 13.0 PPG 3.0 RPG 6.5 APG 1.50 SPG 44% FG 30% 3P 80% FT
7.) Golden State Warriors-Stephen Curry: Point Guard/Shooting Guard-Davidson
The perfect place for a player with Curry's skill set, I expect him to produce very well his first season.
Projected line: 15.0 PPG 3.o RPG 4.0 APG 1.30 SPG 44% FG 39% 3P 90% FT
8.) New York Knicks-Jordan Hill: Power Forward-Arizona
An energetic, athletic big man-Hill fits in very well with Coach D'Antoni's Run N' Gun system. He should get plenty of minutes off the bench and could produce at a reasonable clip his rookie year.
Projected line: 10.0 PPG 7.5 RPG 1.0 APG 1.40 BPG 48% FG 68% FT
9.) Toronto Raptors-DeMar DeRozan: Shooting Guard-USC
DeRozan was a disappointment for most of his Freshman year, however he did turn it around at the end of the year. I expect him to have experience some bumps and bruises along the way in his rookie year. Once he develops a somewhat respectable jumper, he'll blossom.
Projected line: 7.5 PPG 3.0 RPG 1.5 APG 0.50 SPG 43% FG 68% FT
10.) Milwaukee Bucks-Brandon Jennings: Point Guard-Italy
Jennings is a top of the line athlete with great ball handling skills and tremendous passing ability. He struggles with his shot and sometimes tries to play too spectacular instead of just getting the job done. Also, he was the first High Schooler to buck the "One and Done" rule and head overseas, heads to the NBA with more pro experience than most rookies. That being said, he's still a year or two away from fulfilling his potential.
Projected line: 5.0 PPG 1.5 RPG 5.0 APG 0.40 SPG 41% FG 33% 3P 75% FT
11.) New Jersey Nets-Terrence Williams: Small Forward-Louisville
A terrific athlete with a ton of versatility, T-Will should see solid minutes his rookie season and contribute across the board.
Projected line: 12.0 PPG 6.0 RPG 3.5 APG 1.00 SPG 0.60 BPG 45% 30% 3P 62% FT
12.) Charlotte Bobcats-Gerald Henderson: Shooting Guard-Duke
A good, athletic slasher out of Duke, Henderson will be used more for his defense his rookie year. Don't expect a lot of coutning stats.
Projected line: 8.0 PPG 4.0 RPG 2.0 APG 1.00 SPG 44% FG 30% 3P 75.0% FT
13.) Indiana Pacers-Tyler Hansbrough: Power Forward-North Carolina
Psycho T is, and always will be a hustle player with limited athleticism and a fair amount of skill. I envision his career path following the same road as Eduardo Najera-probably a bit more offense though.
Projected line: 8.0 PPG 6.0 RPG 1.0 APG 0.30 BPG 46% FG 83% FT
14.) Phoenix Suns-Earl Clark: Small Forward- Louisville
A very talented player. Earlier in the offseason he was a projected top 10 pick, I'm not sure what happened to change that but I'm sure the Suns aren't complaining. I think he will be a solid contributer his rookie year.
Projected line: 10.0 PPG 6.0 RPG 2.5 APG 0.95 SPG 0.70 BPG 45% FG 28% 3P 66% FT
15.) Detroit Pistons-Austin Daye: Small Forward-Gonzaga
6'10" and 190 pounds. Yes, you read that right. 6'10" and 190 pounds! He won't contribute at all until he gains at least 20 to 30 pounds. He does have a very interesting skill set though.
Projected line: 3.0 PPG 1.5 RPG 0.3 APG 0.40 BPG 43% FG 37% 3P 80% FT
While being the most talented player in the draft, he won't have a huge impact fantasy-wise next season because of the logjam at the front court positions.
Projected line: 13.5 PPG 8.0 RPG 1.5 APG 1.5 BPG 47.5% FG 65% FT
2.) Memphis Grizzlies-Hasheem Thabeet: Center-UCONN
Tremendous upside pick, he won't see a ton of time as a rookie simply because he is so raw and unpolished. He'll come off the bench his first year and could provide a decent amount of blocks, but little else.
Projected line: 3.5 PPG 5.0 RPG 0.5 APG 1.75 BPG 48% FG 65% FT
3.) Oklahoma City Thunder-James Harden: Shooting Guard-Arizona State
Possibly the most complete player and pro-ready player in the draft, he could step in and contribute immediately. He plays with a few other scorers though, so he may be a 3rd or 4th option his first year in the league.
Projected line: 15.0 PPG 4.5 RPG 3.5 APG 1.25 SPG 45% FG 32% 3P 75% FT
4.) Sacramento Kings-Tyreke Evans: Shooting Guard-Memphis
A natural scorer, Evans might still be a year or two away from being able to contribute consistently on this level.
Projected line: 9.0 PPG 2.5 RPG 2.0 APG 0.70 SPG 44% FG 28% 3P 72% FT
5.) Minnesota Timberwolves-Ricky Rubio: Point Guard-Spain
Apparently the second coming of the great Pistol Pete, the 18 year old Rubio is the biggest risk/reward and/or upside pick of the lottery. It will probably take him a few years, at least until age 20 in my opinion, for him to be a consistent force in the league.
Projected line: 6.0 PPG 2.0 RPG 5.0 APG 0.55 SPG 43% FG 32% 3P 77% FT
6.) Minnesota Timberwolves-Jonny Flynn: Point Guard-Syracuse
Very interesting pick, considering the T-wolves JUST selected another promising pick less than 5 minutes before they picked Flynn. The Syracuse product is an extremely quick and talented PG with solid finishing ability and distribution skills. Will probably be more effective than Rubio in Year One.
Projected line: 13.0 PPG 3.0 RPG 6.5 APG 1.50 SPG 44% FG 30% 3P 80% FT
7.) Golden State Warriors-Stephen Curry: Point Guard/Shooting Guard-Davidson
The perfect place for a player with Curry's skill set, I expect him to produce very well his first season.
Projected line: 15.0 PPG 3.o RPG 4.0 APG 1.30 SPG 44% FG 39% 3P 90% FT
8.) New York Knicks-Jordan Hill: Power Forward-Arizona
An energetic, athletic big man-Hill fits in very well with Coach D'Antoni's Run N' Gun system. He should get plenty of minutes off the bench and could produce at a reasonable clip his rookie year.
Projected line: 10.0 PPG 7.5 RPG 1.0 APG 1.40 BPG 48% FG 68% FT
9.) Toronto Raptors-DeMar DeRozan: Shooting Guard-USC
DeRozan was a disappointment for most of his Freshman year, however he did turn it around at the end of the year. I expect him to have experience some bumps and bruises along the way in his rookie year. Once he develops a somewhat respectable jumper, he'll blossom.
Projected line: 7.5 PPG 3.0 RPG 1.5 APG 0.50 SPG 43% FG 68% FT
10.) Milwaukee Bucks-Brandon Jennings: Point Guard-Italy
Jennings is a top of the line athlete with great ball handling skills and tremendous passing ability. He struggles with his shot and sometimes tries to play too spectacular instead of just getting the job done. Also, he was the first High Schooler to buck the "One and Done" rule and head overseas, heads to the NBA with more pro experience than most rookies. That being said, he's still a year or two away from fulfilling his potential.
Projected line: 5.0 PPG 1.5 RPG 5.0 APG 0.40 SPG 41% FG 33% 3P 75% FT
11.) New Jersey Nets-Terrence Williams: Small Forward-Louisville
A terrific athlete with a ton of versatility, T-Will should see solid minutes his rookie season and contribute across the board.
Projected line: 12.0 PPG 6.0 RPG 3.5 APG 1.00 SPG 0.60 BPG 45% 30% 3P 62% FT
12.) Charlotte Bobcats-Gerald Henderson: Shooting Guard-Duke
A good, athletic slasher out of Duke, Henderson will be used more for his defense his rookie year. Don't expect a lot of coutning stats.
Projected line: 8.0 PPG 4.0 RPG 2.0 APG 1.00 SPG 44% FG 30% 3P 75.0% FT
13.) Indiana Pacers-Tyler Hansbrough: Power Forward-North Carolina
Psycho T is, and always will be a hustle player with limited athleticism and a fair amount of skill. I envision his career path following the same road as Eduardo Najera-probably a bit more offense though.
Projected line: 8.0 PPG 6.0 RPG 1.0 APG 0.30 BPG 46% FG 83% FT
14.) Phoenix Suns-Earl Clark: Small Forward- Louisville
A very talented player. Earlier in the offseason he was a projected top 10 pick, I'm not sure what happened to change that but I'm sure the Suns aren't complaining. I think he will be a solid contributer his rookie year.
Projected line: 10.0 PPG 6.0 RPG 2.5 APG 0.95 SPG 0.70 BPG 45% FG 28% 3P 66% FT
15.) Detroit Pistons-Austin Daye: Small Forward-Gonzaga
6'10" and 190 pounds. Yes, you read that right. 6'10" and 190 pounds! He won't contribute at all until he gains at least 20 to 30 pounds. He does have a very interesting skill set though.
Projected line: 3.0 PPG 1.5 RPG 0.3 APG 0.40 BPG 43% FG 37% 3P 80% FT
Sunday, May 10, 2009
Fantasy Baseball: Closers
Due to either struggles or injuries, the following closers may be available in your leagues, they should turn it around soon so try picking them up.
Kerry Wood-CLE
He's been very un-Kerry Wood like this season, but that could just be because he is in a new league. He is far too talented to continue to struggle like this.
Jose Valverde-HOU
Valverde hasn't been great this year, and he is currently on the DL, but it won't surprise me if he ends the season with 30+ saves.
Brian Fuentes-LAA
Fuentes is in a similar boat to Kerry Wood, struggles mainly due to being in a new league. He does already have 8 saves so it may be harder to pry him away, but if you can, you could be rewarded with 50 or so saves seeing how the Angels like to use their closers.
Brad Lidge-PHI
When things are going bad for Brad as they are now, its beyond ugly, but when he is on, he's one of the games best. I think he will turn this around shortly and be back to being dominant.
Kerry Wood-CLE
He's been very un-Kerry Wood like this season, but that could just be because he is in a new league. He is far too talented to continue to struggle like this.
Jose Valverde-HOU
Valverde hasn't been great this year, and he is currently on the DL, but it won't surprise me if he ends the season with 30+ saves.
Brian Fuentes-LAA
Fuentes is in a similar boat to Kerry Wood, struggles mainly due to being in a new league. He does already have 8 saves so it may be harder to pry him away, but if you can, you could be rewarded with 50 or so saves seeing how the Angels like to use their closers.
Brad Lidge-PHI
When things are going bad for Brad as they are now, its beyond ugly, but when he is on, he's one of the games best. I think he will turn this around shortly and be back to being dominant.
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Fantasy Football: Impact Rookies
Every year, a handful of rookies come from the digs of college football bust on to the NFL scene and contribute greatly to many a fantasy football championship. Some of these players are well known commodities like Adrian Peterson and Matt Ryan, while others like Marques Colston and Brandon Jacobs come out of nowhere to sweep us off our feet.
Below is a list of rookies that could have a significant impact
Quarterbacks (ranked from most likely success to least)
Matthew Stafford-Detroit Lions
Mark Sanchez- New York Jets
The only two quarterbacks that I see having any fantasy relevance this year are the big two, Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez. That being said, I don't see Sanchez getting into many games at all this year as I see Rex Ryan taking a more controlled approach to this rookie.
Stafford on the other hand may be forced into action early, maybe even week 6 or so, because the Lions have a little less than nothing to offer from the QB position.
Don't go too crazy though, wait until the later rounds to nab either of these guys or better yet, try to either sign them off the waiver wire when/if they are announced to start.
Runningbacks
Chris Wells (ARI)
Knowshon Moreno (DEN)
LeSean McCoy (PHI)
Donald Brown (IND)
Andre Brown (NYG)
James Davis (CLE)
Chris Wells will get every opportunity to produce, as he is easily the most talented runner on the Cardinals. He could get 300+ touches and double digit TDs. He's going around Round 9 or 10 in early mocks-which I think is far too low
Knowshon finds himself in a difficult situation, as he is playing for a coach that likes to pass a lot (who comes from a coach who is a fan of the Runningback by Committee), and is in a 6 or 7 deep backfield. He is their most talented back though so he should receive 50 or so percent of the carries. He is going in round 6 or 7 in early mocks, which would be solid value for him
With the recent news of yet another Westbrook surgery and the subtraction of Correll Buckhalter, McCoy's value is rising steadily. Any of the inevitable injuries to Westbrook and McCoy will be fantasy gold. Consider using a late round target on him.
Donald Brown is coming into a situation where he will split carries with Joseph Addai. I think Addai will bounce back and I also think Brown is a tad overrated so I'm projecting maybe 500 yards, tops.
Andre Brown will be taking over the "wind" part of the Giants running game which got Derrick Ward 1000 yards last year, so consider looking for him on the waiver wire later on in the season
James Davis is worth keeping an eye on as he steps into a very bad running "attack" in Cleveland, and therefore could manage to muster up a few carries.
Wide Receivers
Percy Harvin (MIN)
Michael Crabtree (SF)
Hakeem Nicks (NYG)
Deon Butler (SEA)
Jeremy Maclin (PHI)
Tiquan Underwood (JAX)
The rookie WR I feel will contribute most from day 1 is Percy Harvin from Florida. He won't net a ton of receptions- maybe 50 or 60, but he will receive a fair amount of carries in addition to those receptions. He's going between round 14 and 16 on average, which sounds about right to me.
Michael Crabtree down the line will be a dominating presence from the receiver position, that being said though, I don't like him this year due to him coming from an extreme spread option and the QB situation in San Fran isn't exactly great. People are expecting big things right away, but be smart, let someone else fall for it this year, then snatch him up the following year.
The Giants have many receivers on their roster that can have some fantasy relevance, but outside of Hakeem Nicks, they lack a big, strong receiver. He won't produce Pro Bowl numbers off the bat, but could contribute in a deep league.
Deon Butler is a small, quick receiver who I think could thrive in an offense like Seattle's, he could contribute a few solid games this year, but he probably shouldn't be drafted.
Jeremy Maclin was an intriguing pick for Philly, seeing as they have a similar young receiver in DeSean Jackson. I don't see Maclin contributing like Jackson did as a rookie though because he is so raw right now.
Call me crazy, but I think Tiquan Underwood from Rutgers could do some damage this year. He's a burner with a little height entering a very shallow receiving group in Jacksonville.
Tight Ends
Brandon Pettigrew (DET)
Cornelius Ingram (PHI)
While many people think Pettigrew will step in and be an immediate receiving impact, they should take into account the fact that Detriot's O-line is terrible and they will be in need of Pettigrew's blocking prowess to slow down the opponent's rush on pass plays. He still could manage 40 or 50 catches though, which could be worthy of a late round selection.
Cornelius Ingram dropped in the draft because of concerns over his ACL, but he is now in a TE friendly scheme in Philly and should reap the benefits of that. 50 receptions isn't entirely out of the question, although he does have some competion in Brent Celek.
Below is a list of rookies that could have a significant impact
Quarterbacks (ranked from most likely success to least)
Matthew Stafford-Detroit Lions
Mark Sanchez- New York Jets
The only two quarterbacks that I see having any fantasy relevance this year are the big two, Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez. That being said, I don't see Sanchez getting into many games at all this year as I see Rex Ryan taking a more controlled approach to this rookie.
Stafford on the other hand may be forced into action early, maybe even week 6 or so, because the Lions have a little less than nothing to offer from the QB position.
Don't go too crazy though, wait until the later rounds to nab either of these guys or better yet, try to either sign them off the waiver wire when/if they are announced to start.
Runningbacks
Chris Wells (ARI)
Knowshon Moreno (DEN)
LeSean McCoy (PHI)
Donald Brown (IND)
Andre Brown (NYG)
James Davis (CLE)
Chris Wells will get every opportunity to produce, as he is easily the most talented runner on the Cardinals. He could get 300+ touches and double digit TDs. He's going around Round 9 or 10 in early mocks-which I think is far too low
Knowshon finds himself in a difficult situation, as he is playing for a coach that likes to pass a lot (who comes from a coach who is a fan of the Runningback by Committee), and is in a 6 or 7 deep backfield. He is their most talented back though so he should receive 50 or so percent of the carries. He is going in round 6 or 7 in early mocks, which would be solid value for him
With the recent news of yet another Westbrook surgery and the subtraction of Correll Buckhalter, McCoy's value is rising steadily. Any of the inevitable injuries to Westbrook and McCoy will be fantasy gold. Consider using a late round target on him.
Donald Brown is coming into a situation where he will split carries with Joseph Addai. I think Addai will bounce back and I also think Brown is a tad overrated so I'm projecting maybe 500 yards, tops.
Andre Brown will be taking over the "wind" part of the Giants running game which got Derrick Ward 1000 yards last year, so consider looking for him on the waiver wire later on in the season
James Davis is worth keeping an eye on as he steps into a very bad running "attack" in Cleveland, and therefore could manage to muster up a few carries.
Wide Receivers
Percy Harvin (MIN)
Michael Crabtree (SF)
Hakeem Nicks (NYG)
Deon Butler (SEA)
Jeremy Maclin (PHI)
Tiquan Underwood (JAX)
The rookie WR I feel will contribute most from day 1 is Percy Harvin from Florida. He won't net a ton of receptions- maybe 50 or 60, but he will receive a fair amount of carries in addition to those receptions. He's going between round 14 and 16 on average, which sounds about right to me.
Michael Crabtree down the line will be a dominating presence from the receiver position, that being said though, I don't like him this year due to him coming from an extreme spread option and the QB situation in San Fran isn't exactly great. People are expecting big things right away, but be smart, let someone else fall for it this year, then snatch him up the following year.
The Giants have many receivers on their roster that can have some fantasy relevance, but outside of Hakeem Nicks, they lack a big, strong receiver. He won't produce Pro Bowl numbers off the bat, but could contribute in a deep league.
Deon Butler is a small, quick receiver who I think could thrive in an offense like Seattle's, he could contribute a few solid games this year, but he probably shouldn't be drafted.
Jeremy Maclin was an intriguing pick for Philly, seeing as they have a similar young receiver in DeSean Jackson. I don't see Maclin contributing like Jackson did as a rookie though because he is so raw right now.
Call me crazy, but I think Tiquan Underwood from Rutgers could do some damage this year. He's a burner with a little height entering a very shallow receiving group in Jacksonville.
Tight Ends
Brandon Pettigrew (DET)
Cornelius Ingram (PHI)
While many people think Pettigrew will step in and be an immediate receiving impact, they should take into account the fact that Detriot's O-line is terrible and they will be in need of Pettigrew's blocking prowess to slow down the opponent's rush on pass plays. He still could manage 40 or 50 catches though, which could be worthy of a late round selection.
Cornelius Ingram dropped in the draft because of concerns over his ACL, but he is now in a TE friendly scheme in Philly and should reap the benefits of that. 50 receptions isn't entirely out of the question, although he does have some competion in Brent Celek.
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Players I'm trying to get at a discount
Melvin Mora-3B
Over the last 5 or 6 years (minus 2007), he has been a very consistent contributor, averaging about a .285 BA, 20 or so home runs and about 90 RBIs. He's struggled both at the plate and with injuries early on, but I think he'll make a solid comeback and have a nice 2nd half.
Howie Kendrick-2B
Already this season he's been wildly inconsistent, being drafted with promise, struggling out of the gate, then hitting everything that gets thrown his way, to now once again struggling. I'll be more than willing to trade for one of the best young hitters in baseball at a discount.
Valdimir Guerrero-OF/DH
You want to know what I like hearing more than almost anything else? When experts on ESPN say a star is done because of a below average 25 at bats and an injury. People freak out and are willing to take him for next to nothing. Vlad can still hit for power (10.67 AB/HR) and average (never had a BA under .300 his entire career) and while he may have started out slow, if you can grab him cheap, you'll be glad you did.
Lance Berkman-1B
He has gotten off to a painfully slow start, but nothing about his history says that he will not turn this around. If you can get him for something less than a 4th round talent, then fire away on that deal.
Matt Holliday-OF
I know that several people thought he would struggle away from Coors Field, and he has so far, but he's just too talented a hitter to not turn it around. He hit a home run yesterday so your chance at getting him cheap may be coming to an end.
Kelly Johnson-2B
Second Base isn't a very deep position, so many of you are probably hurting here. Johnson has been one of the best 2B in all of baseball the last few years so don't let an early season struggle keep you from reaping the benefits of what he could give you.
Brian McCann-C
Catcher is never a deep position, and if you can grab a top tier guy when he is hurt, underperforming, or both, then you better jump on it!
Prince Fielder-1B
He's starting to get a reputation as a slow starter since both this year and last he's come out of the gate with little or no power. Thats good for you though, as you could probably pick him up fairly cheap right now (for a star that is). Act quick though because he is slowly turning it on.
Derek Lee-1B
He's been downright awful this year, but he is a very talented player who should turn it around. The worst is definitely behind him, so picking him up wouldn't be a bad idea.
Geovany Soto-C
People may be wary of him being in the "Sophomore Slump". Me? I think its just taking his swing a little bit to get right. He is in a very good lineup and is a very good hitter himself so look for this to turn around shortly.
Chris Young-OF
He is too young and too talented to keep this pace up. Expect him to finish with 20 home runs and 20+ steals, albeit with a terrible batting average.
Stephen Drew-SS
He had a very good second half last year after a poor first half. The same will happen this year too.
Russell Martin-C
He's started out painfully bad, but he is making more solid contact now and is being more effective on the basepaths. Another catcher I wouldn't mind going for.
Stay tuned tomorrow for some more buy low canidates.
Over the last 5 or 6 years (minus 2007), he has been a very consistent contributor, averaging about a .285 BA, 20 or so home runs and about 90 RBIs. He's struggled both at the plate and with injuries early on, but I think he'll make a solid comeback and have a nice 2nd half.
Howie Kendrick-2B
Already this season he's been wildly inconsistent, being drafted with promise, struggling out of the gate, then hitting everything that gets thrown his way, to now once again struggling. I'll be more than willing to trade for one of the best young hitters in baseball at a discount.
Valdimir Guerrero-OF/DH
You want to know what I like hearing more than almost anything else? When experts on ESPN say a star is done because of a below average 25 at bats and an injury. People freak out and are willing to take him for next to nothing. Vlad can still hit for power (10.67 AB/HR) and average (never had a BA under .300 his entire career) and while he may have started out slow, if you can grab him cheap, you'll be glad you did.
Lance Berkman-1B
He has gotten off to a painfully slow start, but nothing about his history says that he will not turn this around. If you can get him for something less than a 4th round talent, then fire away on that deal.
Matt Holliday-OF
I know that several people thought he would struggle away from Coors Field, and he has so far, but he's just too talented a hitter to not turn it around. He hit a home run yesterday so your chance at getting him cheap may be coming to an end.
Kelly Johnson-2B
Second Base isn't a very deep position, so many of you are probably hurting here. Johnson has been one of the best 2B in all of baseball the last few years so don't let an early season struggle keep you from reaping the benefits of what he could give you.
Brian McCann-C
Catcher is never a deep position, and if you can grab a top tier guy when he is hurt, underperforming, or both, then you better jump on it!
Prince Fielder-1B
He's starting to get a reputation as a slow starter since both this year and last he's come out of the gate with little or no power. Thats good for you though, as you could probably pick him up fairly cheap right now (for a star that is). Act quick though because he is slowly turning it on.
Derek Lee-1B
He's been downright awful this year, but he is a very talented player who should turn it around. The worst is definitely behind him, so picking him up wouldn't be a bad idea.
Geovany Soto-C
People may be wary of him being in the "Sophomore Slump". Me? I think its just taking his swing a little bit to get right. He is in a very good lineup and is a very good hitter himself so look for this to turn around shortly.
Chris Young-OF
He is too young and too talented to keep this pace up. Expect him to finish with 20 home runs and 20+ steals, albeit with a terrible batting average.
Stephen Drew-SS
He had a very good second half last year after a poor first half. The same will happen this year too.
Russell Martin-C
He's started out painfully bad, but he is making more solid contact now and is being more effective on the basepaths. Another catcher I wouldn't mind going for.
Stay tuned tomorrow for some more buy low canidates.
BABIP
For people who are looking for some way to project near future fantasy success of players, BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is a huge stat to keep an eye on as many of you probably know. However, if you dig a little deeper into the BABIP stat, breaking it down as much as possible and studying previous tendencies, you will be even better off.
This page here is an amazing compilation of varying BABIP stats for both pitchers and hitters, such as BABIP on groundballs, line drives, fly balls, and overall. It also includes the respective players stats in those categories for last season so you can see how the player is doing to his last years numbers and gives you the HR/Fly Ball %.
So if you really want a leg up on the competition, check out that link (by Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN.com) and start making some moves based on those stats!
This page here is an amazing compilation of varying BABIP stats for both pitchers and hitters, such as BABIP on groundballs, line drives, fly balls, and overall. It also includes the respective players stats in those categories for last season so you can see how the player is doing to his last years numbers and gives you the HR/Fly Ball %.
So if you really want a leg up on the competition, check out that link (by Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN.com) and start making some moves based on those stats!
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Don't listen to it!
Earlier today, I was on ESPN.com's fantasy baseball site reading up on some stuff when I came across an Eric Karabell page. Now normally I am a big fan of his, but the page I read today I really have to disagree with.
He was writing about how you have to stay with your stars in the early season no matter what, meaning that even if your stars are struggling, keep them in your starting lineup so you dont miss their breakout game. He goes on to write about how back in 2003, an opposing manager in his league for the first time benched the struggling Shawn Green when he had his 4 home run, 7 RBI game and Karabell ended up beating that owner and winning the league by 3 RBIs.
It sounds like a smart move, but don't don't DON'T fall for it. If that owner would have benched Green earlier in the year, he could have picked up 8 to 10 more RBIs by making a shrewd waiver wire pickup, then starting Green once he got back in to the swing of things. If he would have followed this strategty, he would have won his league by 5 to 7 RBIs instead of finishing 2nd.
I am currently doing this in all of my leagues, sitting big name players such as Mark Teixeira, Jimmy Rollins, BJ Upton, and Brandon Phillips in exchange for lesser name players who are producing way out of their mind right now. Once my stars turn it around, they will definitely be back in my lineup, but I find it foolish to stick to your guns just because of their names.
Speaking of that...I may be posting soon about the importance of not following names in fantasy sports some time soon...
He was writing about how you have to stay with your stars in the early season no matter what, meaning that even if your stars are struggling, keep them in your starting lineup so you dont miss their breakout game. He goes on to write about how back in 2003, an opposing manager in his league for the first time benched the struggling Shawn Green when he had his 4 home run, 7 RBI game and Karabell ended up beating that owner and winning the league by 3 RBIs.
It sounds like a smart move, but don't don't DON'T fall for it. If that owner would have benched Green earlier in the year, he could have picked up 8 to 10 more RBIs by making a shrewd waiver wire pickup, then starting Green once he got back in to the swing of things. If he would have followed this strategty, he would have won his league by 5 to 7 RBIs instead of finishing 2nd.
I am currently doing this in all of my leagues, sitting big name players such as Mark Teixeira, Jimmy Rollins, BJ Upton, and Brandon Phillips in exchange for lesser name players who are producing way out of their mind right now. Once my stars turn it around, they will definitely be back in my lineup, but I find it foolish to stick to your guns just because of their names.
Speaking of that...I may be posting soon about the importance of not following names in fantasy sports some time soon...
Fantasy Baseball Advice:
Hot starters you should be trying to sell high on.
Michael Young-3B/SS:
Yes, I know he plays at 2 fairly positions and has been mashing to start the year (7 home runs, .324 batting average) but you can't expect an aging player (32 years old) who has hit a combined 21 home runs the last two seasons with a declining batting average to keep this up. A .300 to .315 average is likely, but you'll soon be seeing the home runs come few and far between. Try trading him for a Jimmy Rollins type or package him for the also struggling Jose Reyes.
Orlando Hudson-2B:
A 31 year old, career .284 hitter who is currently hitting .336? I'm not sold. Sure Hudson does have enough speed to reach 15 or 20 steals, but you'll soon see his average level off to at least .295 and he'll max out at 10 or 12 homers. Sell him high while you still can.
Nick Swisher-1B/OF:
He plays the two deepest batting positions there are which is a large knock on him already. I'm not saying its dumb to own him right now, he's mashing and you want as many players who are currently mashing on you team as possible. But he's a career .246 hitter who is hitting at a .300 clip right now, so obviously thats going to come down. Also, his homers won't keep on coming like they are right now. The Yankees are fairly deep in the outfield, at first base, and at DH, and Swisher's glove isn't worthy of extra playing time, not by a long shot. So sell him while he's still hitting so you can get a return for a guy who more than likely will be platooning within a month or two.
Kosuke Fukodome-OF:
I've said this before, Fukudome will be a monster first half player again this year as he was last year, but will fall off in the 2nd half. As bad? Probably not, last year was just terrible after the break, but he won't keep this up for a full season. Trade at the first sign of trouble.
Michael Young-3B/SS:
Yes, I know he plays at 2 fairly positions and has been mashing to start the year (7 home runs, .324 batting average) but you can't expect an aging player (32 years old) who has hit a combined 21 home runs the last two seasons with a declining batting average to keep this up. A .300 to .315 average is likely, but you'll soon be seeing the home runs come few and far between. Try trading him for a Jimmy Rollins type or package him for the also struggling Jose Reyes.
Orlando Hudson-2B:
A 31 year old, career .284 hitter who is currently hitting .336? I'm not sold. Sure Hudson does have enough speed to reach 15 or 20 steals, but you'll soon see his average level off to at least .295 and he'll max out at 10 or 12 homers. Sell him high while you still can.
Nick Swisher-1B/OF:
He plays the two deepest batting positions there are which is a large knock on him already. I'm not saying its dumb to own him right now, he's mashing and you want as many players who are currently mashing on you team as possible. But he's a career .246 hitter who is hitting at a .300 clip right now, so obviously thats going to come down. Also, his homers won't keep on coming like they are right now. The Yankees are fairly deep in the outfield, at first base, and at DH, and Swisher's glove isn't worthy of extra playing time, not by a long shot. So sell him while he's still hitting so you can get a return for a guy who more than likely will be platooning within a month or two.
Kosuke Fukodome-OF:
I've said this before, Fukudome will be a monster first half player again this year as he was last year, but will fall off in the 2nd half. As bad? Probably not, last year was just terrible after the break, but he won't keep this up for a full season. Trade at the first sign of trouble.
Monday, May 4, 2009
Fantasy Baseball Tip
I want you to think back on your last fantasy baseball draft, and think about when you selected your first and second relief pitchers. Hopefully, you didn't draft them earlier than the 12th round, and if you did, hopefully you've learned your lesson. If you haven't, I'm here to teach you a little something about the art of the fantasy closer pickup.
Out of the 52 Major Leaguers who have a save to their name, guess how many have over 15 innings pitched? The answer is, are you ready? One. One pitcher, Roman Troncoso. The majority of the players remaining have somewhere between 7 and 11 innings pitched. If you're in a head-to-head league, thats bad, but in a rotisserie league, that can be terrifying. A lot of people excuse there nonsensical drafting of a closer so earlier by saying it will greatly help their K's, WHIP, and ERA. In reality though, it won't. If a player will only get you 50 to 80 innings, the percentage of his innings to the whole won't make a signifigant difference, so neither will any of his other stats (aside from saves of course). You just shouldn't draft a player so earlier if he will only truly benefit you in 1 category and wont harm (or really help) you at all in the others. Instead, get players that can help you in 3 of 5 batting categories or piching categories.
Another reason to not draft a pitcher high is because you can always always ALWAYS find saves later, whether that later is a few rounds later in the draft, via free agency, or both. Example? The player with the most saves, Heath Bell (8 saves, 0.00 ERA, 9 Ks), went undrafted in several leagues and always went very late in the others. Same goes for Frank Francisco (7 saves, 0.00 ERA, 10 Ks) and Chad Qualls (6 saves, 1.80 ERA, 14 Ks). Compare that to players who went between 10 and 18 rounds before them like Jonathan Papelbon (6 saves, 1.74 ERA, 10 Ks), Kerry Wood (5 saves, 7.20 ERA, 16 Ks), and Brad Lidge (4 saves, 6.52 ERA, 12 Ks), and you'll find that there really is no advantage to taking closers earlier rather than later.
Out of the 52 Major Leaguers who have a save to their name, guess how many have over 15 innings pitched? The answer is, are you ready? One. One pitcher, Roman Troncoso. The majority of the players remaining have somewhere between 7 and 11 innings pitched. If you're in a head-to-head league, thats bad, but in a rotisserie league, that can be terrifying. A lot of people excuse there nonsensical drafting of a closer so earlier by saying it will greatly help their K's, WHIP, and ERA. In reality though, it won't. If a player will only get you 50 to 80 innings, the percentage of his innings to the whole won't make a signifigant difference, so neither will any of his other stats (aside from saves of course). You just shouldn't draft a player so earlier if he will only truly benefit you in 1 category and wont harm (or really help) you at all in the others. Instead, get players that can help you in 3 of 5 batting categories or piching categories.
Another reason to not draft a pitcher high is because you can always always ALWAYS find saves later, whether that later is a few rounds later in the draft, via free agency, or both. Example? The player with the most saves, Heath Bell (8 saves, 0.00 ERA, 9 Ks), went undrafted in several leagues and always went very late in the others. Same goes for Frank Francisco (7 saves, 0.00 ERA, 10 Ks) and Chad Qualls (6 saves, 1.80 ERA, 14 Ks). Compare that to players who went between 10 and 18 rounds before them like Jonathan Papelbon (6 saves, 1.74 ERA, 10 Ks), Kerry Wood (5 saves, 7.20 ERA, 16 Ks), and Brad Lidge (4 saves, 6.52 ERA, 12 Ks), and you'll find that there really is no advantage to taking closers earlier rather than later.
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Fantasy Baseball How To
Trade for a top prospect
Trading for a big name prospect might be the the most difficult thing to do in fantasy baseball. You have to think through how you value the prospect, how the other owner values the prospect and depending on how your trade rules are set up, how your fellow league-mates view that prospect (because they can veto trades and such).
Normally the person who has the top prospect will value him a little higher than everyone else (maybe a lot more)-I mean, they did pick that player before anyone else, so seeing eye-to-eye on trade value could be difficult. The best thing you could do would be to talk to the other manager, see his value, and try to temper his love for said prospect by using obscure stats and skewing the advice of fantasy experts to your advantage-like saying that you heard Peter Gammons say they were going to keep this player down til at least July or something. Is this unethical? It just may be, but if you can land a potential top player for a lot less than you would have had to give up, then its better for you.
After you have seen the other manager's expectations of this player and have tried knocking those expectations down, begin talks with him about trade offers. Offer him players that you value slightly less than the prospect, sending messages with reassuring points about the player you are giving up.
You may have to do some tinkering with the player(s) you offer, maybe even do a package deal, whatever the case is though, don't go over your expected value of your potential newcomer. Don't fall in to the trap that many fantasy sports managers fall in to-getting their sights set on a player and doing whatever it takes to get the player, regardless of whether or not it hurts your team.
Hopefully following these tips can help you land a Wieters or a Price for a much lower...price (sorry, had to) and also can net you a few steals in trades that don't involve prospects.
Trading for a big name prospect might be the the most difficult thing to do in fantasy baseball. You have to think through how you value the prospect, how the other owner values the prospect and depending on how your trade rules are set up, how your fellow league-mates view that prospect (because they can veto trades and such).
Normally the person who has the top prospect will value him a little higher than everyone else (maybe a lot more)-I mean, they did pick that player before anyone else, so seeing eye-to-eye on trade value could be difficult. The best thing you could do would be to talk to the other manager, see his value, and try to temper his love for said prospect by using obscure stats and skewing the advice of fantasy experts to your advantage-like saying that you heard Peter Gammons say they were going to keep this player down til at least July or something. Is this unethical? It just may be, but if you can land a potential top player for a lot less than you would have had to give up, then its better for you.
After you have seen the other manager's expectations of this player and have tried knocking those expectations down, begin talks with him about trade offers. Offer him players that you value slightly less than the prospect, sending messages with reassuring points about the player you are giving up.
You may have to do some tinkering with the player(s) you offer, maybe even do a package deal, whatever the case is though, don't go over your expected value of your potential newcomer. Don't fall in to the trap that many fantasy sports managers fall in to-getting their sights set on a player and doing whatever it takes to get the player, regardless of whether or not it hurts your team.
Hopefully following these tips can help you land a Wieters or a Price for a much lower...price (sorry, had to) and also can net you a few steals in trades that don't involve prospects.
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Fantasy Baseball How To
Know who, when, and how to pick up a prospect.
Everybody wants to be that guy. You know, the one who takes the risk on the soon-to-be-called-up guy, then have him turn to gold and he leads you to a championship. But in reality, the chance of this success happening more often than not leads to the destruction of a good team rather than the step up of good to great for a team.
So how exactly can you know when to pick up a player either still in the minors or who has just been called up? Well, there is no easy way really, if you truly want to find a unique sleeper who can help you out (think Blake DeWitt last season) you have to do some research.
First, you have to know which players are about to be called up or players who are dominating in the minors. Sites like http://www.scoutingbook.com/prospects/, http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/top-100-fantasy-baseball-prospects-5-1-09/ , and to see prospects stats, go to http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/. Checking these sites and many others will greatly increase your knowledge of who will be coming up when and how they should do (roughly) once they arrive.
After you learn when someone will be coming up and you have a fair barometer of how you think they'll perform, its time to get them on your team-maybe. If you have a player or two on currently on your team that you think won't produce much at all (less than the player you want to pick up) then obviously pull the trigger, but if you feel the player you want and the one you have will do roughly the same, keep the player you have because he is a much surer thing than a player with no big league experience.
Trading for prospects though is an entirely different monster though, so i will tackle that in a new post.
Also, check out my NFL blog at nflep.blogspot.com.
Everybody wants to be that guy. You know, the one who takes the risk on the soon-to-be-called-up guy, then have him turn to gold and he leads you to a championship. But in reality, the chance of this success happening more often than not leads to the destruction of a good team rather than the step up of good to great for a team.
So how exactly can you know when to pick up a player either still in the minors or who has just been called up? Well, there is no easy way really, if you truly want to find a unique sleeper who can help you out (think Blake DeWitt last season) you have to do some research.
First, you have to know which players are about to be called up or players who are dominating in the minors. Sites like http://www.scoutingbook.com/prospects/, http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/top-100-fantasy-baseball-prospects-5-1-09/ , and to see prospects stats, go to http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/. Checking these sites and many others will greatly increase your knowledge of who will be coming up when and how they should do (roughly) once they arrive.
After you learn when someone will be coming up and you have a fair barometer of how you think they'll perform, its time to get them on your team-maybe. If you have a player or two on currently on your team that you think won't produce much at all (less than the player you want to pick up) then obviously pull the trigger, but if you feel the player you want and the one you have will do roughly the same, keep the player you have because he is a much surer thing than a player with no big league experience.
Trading for prospects though is an entirely different monster though, so i will tackle that in a new post.
Also, check out my NFL blog at nflep.blogspot.com.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Fantasy Baseball How To:
Effectively improve your team via the waiver wire.
By this point in the season, you've probably come pretty close to recognizing what all your team is strong at, and what all categories they could use some help with.
If you aren't really sure, take a look at your accumulated stats (there should be a link for this somewhere on the league's homepage) and see what categories you need help with-I prefer writing down each category that I feel I need help with.
With this information at hand, you should start to focus on stats on the waiver wire instead of big names and/or numbers that you are already in good shape at.
For example, lets say that you are 2nd in your league in home runs but only ninth in stolen bases, but some one has just dropped Chris Davis whom you have had your eye on since before the draft. Obviously you would be tempted to pick him up, but instead try to find an unheralded speed guy. You can still make room to put Chris Davis on your team, but finding a speed guy needs to be your top priority.
Pitching, on the other hand, can be a little more complicated though, depending on your league's scoring settings.
If your league has a category for Innings Pitched along with all the other 'normal' stat categories, it may be wise to have an extra starter on your team in place of a reliever, but don't go overboard with this. Don't sacrifice your ERA, WHIP, Saves, and Walks just to try and gain an advantage in K's, Wins, and Innings. If you'll do the math here, you're hurting your team by doing so.
Slowly throughout the year, try and pick up starters who flying under the radar but performing very well and you may be able to pick up a clean sweep in pitching categories once in a while.
By this point in the season, you've probably come pretty close to recognizing what all your team is strong at, and what all categories they could use some help with.
If you aren't really sure, take a look at your accumulated stats (there should be a link for this somewhere on the league's homepage) and see what categories you need help with-I prefer writing down each category that I feel I need help with.
With this information at hand, you should start to focus on stats on the waiver wire instead of big names and/or numbers that you are already in good shape at.
For example, lets say that you are 2nd in your league in home runs but only ninth in stolen bases, but some one has just dropped Chris Davis whom you have had your eye on since before the draft. Obviously you would be tempted to pick him up, but instead try to find an unheralded speed guy. You can still make room to put Chris Davis on your team, but finding a speed guy needs to be your top priority.
Pitching, on the other hand, can be a little more complicated though, depending on your league's scoring settings.
If your league has a category for Innings Pitched along with all the other 'normal' stat categories, it may be wise to have an extra starter on your team in place of a reliever, but don't go overboard with this. Don't sacrifice your ERA, WHIP, Saves, and Walks just to try and gain an advantage in K's, Wins, and Innings. If you'll do the math here, you're hurting your team by doing so.
Slowly throughout the year, try and pick up starters who flying under the radar but performing very well and you may be able to pick up a clean sweep in pitching categories once in a while.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Closer watch
A handful of teams, whether the reason is injury or ineffectiveness, now have a different closer ending games for them. You should consider picking these players up and squeeze every save and strikeout you can out of them.
- Scott Downs-Replacing the injured BJ Ryan.
- Ryan Franklin-The main St. Louis closer, hasn't given up a run in 7 innings .
- Brad Zeigler-Teammate and would-be save stealer Joey Devine is out for the year.
- Todd Coffey-The interim closer til Hoffman gets back (which should be a week or so). still, could net you a save or two in the mean time.
- Rafael Soriano-Has been the Braves most effective closer thus far.
- Carlos Marmol-Sweet Lou likes him more in the 8th, but he will get a few spot saves every now and then and will help you greatly in Ks.
- Manny Corpas-Took over for Huston Street, hasn't been effective yet though.
- Chris Perez-Having some control issues, but he's the most talented reliever the Cardinals have.
- Dan Wheeler- Troy Percival isn't exactly the poster boy of durability. When he breaks down, Wheeler will be next in line for saves.
- Jason Grili- Newly appointed closer Manny Corpas has already struggled and Grili is posting a 1.29 ERA.
- Chris Ray-I know he's not doing well, but neither is George Sherril.
- Tommy Hunter-Could pull an Adam Wainwright and close for the Braves down the stretch (if they're in contention)
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
What to do with DL eligible players
Today, Pittsburgh catcher Ryan Doumit was placed on the DL, leading to thousands upon thousands of fantasy owners dropping him from their team in exchange for some garbage replacement like Ramon Hernandez when they easily could have (and should have) just placed him on an empty DL spot.
They would still have to pick up a well-below average replacement while he is out, but once he comes back in mid-June or July (with still a good 2 or 3 months of baseball left), they will have a top 10 catcher in their lap.
So my advice to all of you is if somebody in your league drops a player that is slightly above average, pick him up, stash him on your DL, and laugh at the owner after he gets healthy and helps you win a title.
They would still have to pick up a well-below average replacement while he is out, but once he comes back in mid-June or July (with still a good 2 or 3 months of baseball left), they will have a top 10 catcher in their lap.
So my advice to all of you is if somebody in your league drops a player that is slightly above average, pick him up, stash him on your DL, and laugh at the owner after he gets healthy and helps you win a title.
Monday, April 20, 2009
Fantasy Baseball team updates
This week...definitely wasn't my finest week ever. Almost all of my teams lost ground in the standings. Here's the recap of Week 2.
Team 1:
I started out the week with high hopes. I was only 1/2 game out of first place and was playing a team that didn't win a single category the previous week. All of my hitters decided to pick this week to not do jack squat (which I guess isn't really too bad of a thing) and my pitchers only did average. I finished this week 3-7-3 but am still in 2nd place, now 3 1/2 games back of first.
I dropped Chad Qualls and Howie Kendrick for Fernando Rodney and Orlando Hudson, respectively. Also, I plan on taking offers for Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki, and Chris Davis within the next few weeks.
Team 2:
Same story as team 1. I was right in the thick of things, playing a team that got dominated in Week 1, but got hammered instead. I dropped 8 out of 10 categories to bury me in 7th place, 7 1/2 games behind 1st.
I was pretty busy on the free agent market, dropping Chris Young (OF), Kevin Slowey, Ryan Zimmerman, Scott Baker, Huston Street, and Randy Winn (who I also added this week) for: Randy Winn, Jeremy Guthrie, Kevin Millwood, Travis Snider, and Manny Corpas. I am currently shopping; James Loney, Howie Kendrick, Kelly Shoppach, Carlos Villanueva, and Jeremy Guthrie.
Team 3:
This team didn't entirely suck this week, but also wasn't lights out unstoppable. I finished the week against a pretty good team with a 9-11-2 record and am now sitting in 3rd place, only 3 games out of 1st place.
I dropped Joba Chamberlain and Max Scherzer for Fernando Rodney and Joel Hanrahan (I had no closers) and am shopping arond Chris Iannetta.
Team 4:
This was easily my best team this week, the only team I had that had a winning record. I finished the week 8-4-0 and am currently in sole possesion of 1st place-a single game ahead of the two players tied for 2nd.
I dropped Kevin Slowey, Jason Motte, Vernon Wells, and Jared Weaver for Kevin Millwood, Fernando Rodney, and Manny Corpas.
I'll be back with more updates on how my teams are doing next Monday. Feel free to ask any fantasy questions!
Team 1:
I started out the week with high hopes. I was only 1/2 game out of first place and was playing a team that didn't win a single category the previous week. All of my hitters decided to pick this week to not do jack squat (which I guess isn't really too bad of a thing) and my pitchers only did average. I finished this week 3-7-3 but am still in 2nd place, now 3 1/2 games back of first.
I dropped Chad Qualls and Howie Kendrick for Fernando Rodney and Orlando Hudson, respectively. Also, I plan on taking offers for Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki, and Chris Davis within the next few weeks.
Team 2:
Same story as team 1. I was right in the thick of things, playing a team that got dominated in Week 1, but got hammered instead. I dropped 8 out of 10 categories to bury me in 7th place, 7 1/2 games behind 1st.
I was pretty busy on the free agent market, dropping Chris Young (OF), Kevin Slowey, Ryan Zimmerman, Scott Baker, Huston Street, and Randy Winn (who I also added this week) for: Randy Winn, Jeremy Guthrie, Kevin Millwood, Travis Snider, and Manny Corpas. I am currently shopping; James Loney, Howie Kendrick, Kelly Shoppach, Carlos Villanueva, and Jeremy Guthrie.
Team 3:
This team didn't entirely suck this week, but also wasn't lights out unstoppable. I finished the week against a pretty good team with a 9-11-2 record and am now sitting in 3rd place, only 3 games out of 1st place.
I dropped Joba Chamberlain and Max Scherzer for Fernando Rodney and Joel Hanrahan (I had no closers) and am shopping arond Chris Iannetta.
Team 4:
This was easily my best team this week, the only team I had that had a winning record. I finished the week 8-4-0 and am currently in sole possesion of 1st place-a single game ahead of the two players tied for 2nd.
I dropped Kevin Slowey, Jason Motte, Vernon Wells, and Jared Weaver for Kevin Millwood, Fernando Rodney, and Manny Corpas.
I'll be back with more updates on how my teams are doing next Monday. Feel free to ask any fantasy questions!
Friday, April 17, 2009
Fantasy Note
Both Kevin Milwood and Josh Johnson are starting tomorrow. If they are still available in your league(s) it would be a wise move to pick up either one or both of them. Johnson has 20 win potential this year with an ERA in the mid to high 2's and 200+ strikeouts while Milwood could get anywhere from 15 to 18 wins with an ERA between 3 and 4 and 180 or more strikeouts.
If you can pick them up, you should probably think about doing so...
If you can pick them up, you should probably think about doing so...
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Buy Low/Sell High Canidates
I know its early in the season, but its never too early to be thinking of your teams long term success. The best way to do this? Like many things in life-buy low and sell high-meaning trade away players who are performing way better than expected (if you don't think they can keep it up) and trying to get under performing stars whose owners may be getting nervous.
The SELL HIGH group. If you own one of these players, consider trading them soon while their values are still high but if you don't, don't let go of too much for them.
The SELL HIGH group. If you own one of these players, consider trading them soon while their values are still high but if you don't, don't let go of too much for them.
- Emilio Bonifacio (2B/3B-FLA)
- Nick Swisher (1B/OF-NYY)
- Jack Cust (U-OAK)
- Marco Scutaro (2B/3B/SS-TOR)
- Kyle Lohse (SP-STL)
- Kevin Milwood (SP-TEX)
- Ryan Braun (OF-MIL) He has injury concerns right now, but I don't think they're too serious which is great news. The "injury" drives his value down even more.
- Mark Teixeira (1B-NYY) Also has injury concerns. Keep an eye on his injury.
- Jimmy Rollins (SS-PHI)
- Prince Fielder (1B-MIL) Started off slow last year too but ended up alright.
- Chris Iannetta (C-COL) He'll be a top 5 or 6 catcher by the end of the year.
- Brandon Webb (SP-ARI) There's no better time to steal a player than when he lands on the DL
- Cliff Lee (SP-CLE)
- Roy Oswalt (SP-HOU) Look at his 2nd half last year
- Ricky Nolasco (SP-FLA) Peter Gammons likes him-and he knows more about baseball than all of us...combined
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Attention!
If any of you are football fans, check out my blog on the goings-ons of the NFL world at http://nflep.blogspot.com/. Right now I am doing a team by team preview of the upcoming draft and will be posting plenty of other stuff on there.
Also, within the next week, I will be sharing a few pointers on the Art of the Unfair Fantasy Trade. It will show you a few of my tactics for trying to get as much as you possibly can in a trade (and then some).
Also, within the next week, I will be sharing a few pointers on the Art of the Unfair Fantasy Trade. It will show you a few of my tactics for trying to get as much as you possibly can in a trade (and then some).
Monday, April 13, 2009
Quick update on my teams.
In my first league, I finished the week undefeated, posting a 9-0-4 record and am currently sitting in 2nd place only 1/2 game behind 1st. I've dropped Jason Motte, Erik Bedard (not smart), and Lastings Miledge for Frank Fransisco, Chad Qualls, and Nelson Cruz.
The second league, I'm currently in 4th place with a 6-3-1 record, but only 1/2 game behind teams 1A, 1B, and 1C. I signed Jonny Cueto to fill in for Scott Baker who is currently on the DL and have released Manny Corpas for Aaron Harang, Jason Motte for Carlos Villanueva, Jonny Cueto for Kyle Davies, and Chris Young (OF) for Randy Winn.
The third league, I am in 2nd place with a 14-6-2 record and am only (again) 1/2 game behind first place. I picked up Aaron Harang off waivers to replace BJ Upton while he is on the DL, and dropped Jonny Cueto in favor of Florida's Chris Volstad.
In the last league, I am once again in second place by, yep, you guessed it, 1/2 game. I had a pretty solid week, finishing 7-3-2. I have dropped Joey Devine, Kevin Slowey, Jason Motte, and Wandy Rodiriguez (who I had picked up in place of BJ Upton who is on the DL) for Edwin Jackson, Jeremy Guthrie, Kevin Milwood, and Fernando Rodney, respectively.
All in all, I'd say that I am off to a very solid start in all of my leagues and I can see myself being in contention until the end of the year (lets hope).
The second league, I'm currently in 4th place with a 6-3-1 record, but only 1/2 game behind teams 1A, 1B, and 1C. I signed Jonny Cueto to fill in for Scott Baker who is currently on the DL and have released Manny Corpas for Aaron Harang, Jason Motte for Carlos Villanueva, Jonny Cueto for Kyle Davies, and Chris Young (OF) for Randy Winn.
The third league, I am in 2nd place with a 14-6-2 record and am only (again) 1/2 game behind first place. I picked up Aaron Harang off waivers to replace BJ Upton while he is on the DL, and dropped Jonny Cueto in favor of Florida's Chris Volstad.
In the last league, I am once again in second place by, yep, you guessed it, 1/2 game. I had a pretty solid week, finishing 7-3-2. I have dropped Joey Devine, Kevin Slowey, Jason Motte, and Wandy Rodiriguez (who I had picked up in place of BJ Upton who is on the DL) for Edwin Jackson, Jeremy Guthrie, Kevin Milwood, and Fernando Rodney, respectively.
All in all, I'd say that I am off to a very solid start in all of my leagues and I can see myself being in contention until the end of the year (lets hope).
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Fantasy Baseball early season tip 2...
If your league settings allow it and there are more counting categories (wins, Ks, IP, etc) than per-inning/per-game stats (WHIP, ERA, etc) and you have a strong offense who can win you about 2/3 of your offensive categories, then you should seriously consider streaming your pitchers (adding and dropping pitchers everyday concerning who is starting that day).
It may make a couple people angry, but there is no rule against it (unless your commissioner puts a max number of IPs) and therefore is fair game. Other owners may not believe in doing this, but bottom line is winning and if streaming helps you do so, it doesn't matter if it is "not right" or not.
You have to keep this in mind though, you will more than likely lose your WHIP, ERA, and BBs each week so make sure you will gain more than you lose by streaming before you do so.
It may make a couple people angry, but there is no rule against it (unless your commissioner puts a max number of IPs) and therefore is fair game. Other owners may not believe in doing this, but bottom line is winning and if streaming helps you do so, it doesn't matter if it is "not right" or not.
You have to keep this in mind though, you will more than likely lose your WHIP, ERA, and BBs each week so make sure you will gain more than you lose by streaming before you do so.
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Fantasy Baseball early season tip...
Many of you may be in this scenarion right now; the first week of the season is almost complete and the 'studs' you have drafted like Jose Reyes, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Tim Lincecum etc. are doing absolutely AWFUL. So what should you do when this happens-when your big name stars are struggling so terribly?
You see, baseball is unlike any other sport on earth. The best hitter in history could go 2 weeks without getting a single hit while on the other hand some no-name scrub could get a hit in 8 straight ABs. Does that mean you should drop greatest-hitter-ever for no-name-scrub? Definitely not. Instead, just roll with it and do nothing. They will right the ship eventually.
However, if your star player has gotten around 150 ABs or 60 IP and they still are destroying your team, it may be time to trade them (but never drop them, someone will almost always be willing to trade for a big-name guy)
One thing you can do to take advantage of your impatient fellow-fantasyers is to send out trades early for any struggling superstar and see if you can get lucky.
You see, baseball is unlike any other sport on earth. The best hitter in history could go 2 weeks without getting a single hit while on the other hand some no-name scrub could get a hit in 8 straight ABs. Does that mean you should drop greatest-hitter-ever for no-name-scrub? Definitely not. Instead, just roll with it and do nothing. They will right the ship eventually.
However, if your star player has gotten around 150 ABs or 60 IP and they still are destroying your team, it may be time to trade them (but never drop them, someone will almost always be willing to trade for a big-name guy)
One thing you can do to take advantage of your impatient fellow-fantasyers is to send out trades early for any struggling superstar and see if you can get lucky.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
What should you do with...
Its a short list today, but here we go...
Freddy Sanchez-3B (PIT)
Stay Away. He was a very solid hitter 2 years ago, but his play has declined ever since. He's started off the season very hot, but it won't last.
Ryan Spilborghs-OF (COL)
Keep an eye on.
He's not guaranteed any playing time, but if he gets consistent ABs, consider picking him up.
Zach Miner-P (DET)
Pick him up. I made it a point to pick him up in three of my leagues because I had a feeling that he would break through. Threw one game, I'm looking like a slight genius.
Kosuke Fukudome-OF (CHN)
Pick him up. But release him or try to trade him as soon as the All-Star break comes. Last season he batted 62 points lower and had an OPS 151 points lower in the second half than he did the first.
Yovanni Gallardo-P (MIL)
Pick him up. I can't see him being available in many leagues, but I was able to sign him in two leagues so he's worth a talk. He has dominating stuff, plain and simple.
Freddy Sanchez-3B (PIT)
Stay Away. He was a very solid hitter 2 years ago, but his play has declined ever since. He's started off the season very hot, but it won't last.
Ryan Spilborghs-OF (COL)
Keep an eye on.
He's not guaranteed any playing time, but if he gets consistent ABs, consider picking him up.
Zach Miner-P (DET)
Pick him up. I made it a point to pick him up in three of my leagues because I had a feeling that he would break through. Threw one game, I'm looking like a slight genius.
Kosuke Fukudome-OF (CHN)
Pick him up. But release him or try to trade him as soon as the All-Star break comes. Last season he batted 62 points lower and had an OPS 151 points lower in the second half than he did the first.
Yovanni Gallardo-P (MIL)
Pick him up. I can't see him being available in many leagues, but I was able to sign him in two leagues so he's worth a talk. He has dominating stuff, plain and simple.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Top under the radar players (Hitters)
A list of the players that are truly undervalued in fantasy baseball that you should consider picking up.
There will be no Pablo Sandoval's or Justin Upton's on this list-players that everyone is calling underrated so therefore...they are no longer underrated and have become overrated in fact.
CATCHER:
Kelly Shoppach (CLE)- (Available in 58% of leagues)
Will get plenty of opportunities to catch and he hit 21 HRs last season.
Jared Saltalamacchia (TEX)- (Available in 63% of leagues)
Everyone is so high on Taylor Teagarden this year that Salty has been sort of pushed to the side. He's still very young and talented so he could break out at any time.
Jesus Flores (WAS)- (Available in 93% of leagues)
Not a ton of people are familiar with him but he has produced pretty well in his 170 career big league games. He won't win you any leagues single handidly, but if one of your catchers gets injured or is struggling, have him on your radar.
FIRST BASE:
Adam LaRoche (PIT)-(Available in 60% of leagues)
Sure, he always starts out slow, but after his month or so of being far below average, he can really contribute-as evidenced by the 25 home runs he hit last season.
Todd Helton (COL)- (Available in 82% of leagues)
Did you not see the Spring he had this year? I'll be the first to tell you that spring stats are meaningless...most of the time, but I think they can be a strong indicator of someone who had a down year due to injury will perform in the upcoming season. He could be a major upgrade as your backup 1B.
SECOND BASE:
Mark Teahan (KC)- (Available in 83% of leagues)
A 27 year old who has had a couple of off years after posting a very solid 2006 campaign is a player that I would normally keep an eye on anyway. Throw in the fact that he is now moving to 2B and also has eligibility at 1B, 3B, and OF...this player could really help you out.
Ronnie Belliard (WAS)- (Available in 97% of leagues)
In 297 ABs last year, he hit 11 homers and batted .287. He is the Nationals starting second baseman. He has additional eligibility at 1B and 3B. If you are in need of some position flexibility and potential for a solid season at a shallow position, Belliard is your man.
THIRD BASE:
Chase Headley (SD)- (Available in 88% of leagues)
In about half a season's worth of ABs, he hit 9 HRs and drove in 38 runs. Now those aren't exactly what you would call starter caliber numbers, but provided you have little depth at either 3B or OF, you should seriously consider picking up Headley.
Scott Rolen (TOR)- (Available in 94% of leagues)
Yes, he more than likely will go down with some sort of injury in a month or two, but if your current third-baseman is out, A-rod and Glaus owners, you could pick Rolen up for a very solid stretch of games before the inevitable injury comes his way.
SHORTSTOP:
Jason Bartlett (TB)- (Available in 94% of leagues)
There is no real reason to own Bartlett, unless your team is in absolute dire need of steals and the shelf is completely barren of shortstops-if thats the case, then feel free picking him up.
OUTFIELD:
Adam Lind (TOR)- (Available in 56% of leagues)
But that number is probably plummeting in a hurry, and rightfully so. This kid (he's only 25) has a good makeup at the plate and has real big league power on his 6-1 215 lb frame. Drop one of your backup outfielders for this kid, you'll be glad you did.
Luke Scott (BAL)- (Available in 94% of leagues)
If your team is very average-heavy and needs a slight boost in the HR category, pick up Scott. Don't be alarmed when your team BA goes down slightly, thats to be expected with a career .226 (and sliding) hitter, but he still has solid pop in that bat.
Randy Winn (SF)- (Available in 80% of leagues)
Of the free-agent OFs, he is as close to the anti-LukeScott as you can really get. The power has all but left the bat of this 34 year old, but he is very crafty on the base paths and a solid batting average guy. Expect a .300 average and 20 or so steals with a dozen HRs tops.
David DeJesus (KC)- (Available in 84% of leagues)
A .300 hitter that reached double digit steals and homeruns, moving back to a much more natural position. Sign me up.
Andruw Jones (TEX)- (Available in 97% of leagues)
If any Ranger outfielder or DH not named Josh Hamilton should struggle out of the gate, Jones-who is in much better shape than he's been in years-would be first in line to step in and take those ABs. If he can get to 400 at-bats, I could see him hitting about 20 HRs with a .250 to .270 BA.
There will be no Pablo Sandoval's or Justin Upton's on this list-players that everyone is calling underrated so therefore...they are no longer underrated and have become overrated in fact.
CATCHER:
Kelly Shoppach (CLE)- (Available in 58% of leagues)
Will get plenty of opportunities to catch and he hit 21 HRs last season.
Jared Saltalamacchia (TEX)- (Available in 63% of leagues)
Everyone is so high on Taylor Teagarden this year that Salty has been sort of pushed to the side. He's still very young and talented so he could break out at any time.
Jesus Flores (WAS)- (Available in 93% of leagues)
Not a ton of people are familiar with him but he has produced pretty well in his 170 career big league games. He won't win you any leagues single handidly, but if one of your catchers gets injured or is struggling, have him on your radar.
FIRST BASE:
Adam LaRoche (PIT)-(Available in 60% of leagues)
Sure, he always starts out slow, but after his month or so of being far below average, he can really contribute-as evidenced by the 25 home runs he hit last season.
Todd Helton (COL)- (Available in 82% of leagues)
Did you not see the Spring he had this year? I'll be the first to tell you that spring stats are meaningless...most of the time, but I think they can be a strong indicator of someone who had a down year due to injury will perform in the upcoming season. He could be a major upgrade as your backup 1B.
SECOND BASE:
Mark Teahan (KC)- (Available in 83% of leagues)
A 27 year old who has had a couple of off years after posting a very solid 2006 campaign is a player that I would normally keep an eye on anyway. Throw in the fact that he is now moving to 2B and also has eligibility at 1B, 3B, and OF...this player could really help you out.
Ronnie Belliard (WAS)- (Available in 97% of leagues)
In 297 ABs last year, he hit 11 homers and batted .287. He is the Nationals starting second baseman. He has additional eligibility at 1B and 3B. If you are in need of some position flexibility and potential for a solid season at a shallow position, Belliard is your man.
THIRD BASE:
Chase Headley (SD)- (Available in 88% of leagues)
In about half a season's worth of ABs, he hit 9 HRs and drove in 38 runs. Now those aren't exactly what you would call starter caliber numbers, but provided you have little depth at either 3B or OF, you should seriously consider picking up Headley.
Scott Rolen (TOR)- (Available in 94% of leagues)
Yes, he more than likely will go down with some sort of injury in a month or two, but if your current third-baseman is out, A-rod and Glaus owners, you could pick Rolen up for a very solid stretch of games before the inevitable injury comes his way.
SHORTSTOP:
Jason Bartlett (TB)- (Available in 94% of leagues)
There is no real reason to own Bartlett, unless your team is in absolute dire need of steals and the shelf is completely barren of shortstops-if thats the case, then feel free picking him up.
OUTFIELD:
Adam Lind (TOR)- (Available in 56% of leagues)
But that number is probably plummeting in a hurry, and rightfully so. This kid (he's only 25) has a good makeup at the plate and has real big league power on his 6-1 215 lb frame. Drop one of your backup outfielders for this kid, you'll be glad you did.
Luke Scott (BAL)- (Available in 94% of leagues)
If your team is very average-heavy and needs a slight boost in the HR category, pick up Scott. Don't be alarmed when your team BA goes down slightly, thats to be expected with a career .226 (and sliding) hitter, but he still has solid pop in that bat.
Randy Winn (SF)- (Available in 80% of leagues)
Of the free-agent OFs, he is as close to the anti-LukeScott as you can really get. The power has all but left the bat of this 34 year old, but he is very crafty on the base paths and a solid batting average guy. Expect a .300 average and 20 or so steals with a dozen HRs tops.
David DeJesus (KC)- (Available in 84% of leagues)
A .300 hitter that reached double digit steals and homeruns, moving back to a much more natural position. Sign me up.
Andruw Jones (TEX)- (Available in 97% of leagues)
If any Ranger outfielder or DH not named Josh Hamilton should struggle out of the gate, Jones-who is in much better shape than he's been in years-would be first in line to step in and take those ABs. If he can get to 400 at-bats, I could see him hitting about 20 HRs with a .250 to .270 BA.
Monday, April 6, 2009
What should you do with...
Aaron Harang-SP (CIN):
Pick him up. He was able to hold a potent Mets lineup to 1 run despite not having his best stuff. He could net you 15 wins and 200+ Ks.
Nelson Cruz-OF (TEX):
Pick him up. This kid is quickly shaking the "Quad-A" label that had been thrust upon him earlier in his career. He's been on a tear since entering Triple-A last season and I don't see him slowing down much this year barring injury. He could easily drive in 100+ runs hitting cleanup for the Rangers.
Hank Blalock-1B/3B/DH (TEX):
Wait and see. Yes, he did hit a fairly mammoth shot today, but I'm very wary of him because of his injury history. He could hit 25 HRs this year, but then again he may only play 50 games.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia-C (TEX):
Pick him up. (If there isn't a ton of depth at catcher in your league). He has the skill set to be a very productive catcher, but he will be splitting time with another young stud in Taylor Teagarden.
Kevin Milwood-SP (TEX)
Pick him up. His numbers were greatly inflated last year thanks in part to some awful luck. He should be significantly better this year.
Felipe Lopez-2B/SS/3B/OF (ARI)
Pick him up. This super-utility player will allow you to focus more on having just the best players as backups instead of worrying about getting each position covered, and he'll provided solid average, steals, and runs while doing so.
Tony Clark-1B (ARI)
Stay away. He's not promised playing time, and has a very difficult time making contact. No thanks.
Cesar Izturis-SS (BAL)
Stay away. Had a nice first game of the season, but there's a reason he was the last batter on a well below average Baltimore team.
Emilio Bonifacio-2B/3B (FLA)
Pick him up. Only if you want a lot cheap steals, an average average, and little help in the other categories. You could do worse with a backup 2B/3B.
Paul Maholm-SP (PIT)
Pick him up. This guy was a very solid pitcher last year, and is only 26. I think he puts together a season similar to last year.
Jason Motte-RP (STL)
Pick him up. So what, he had one bad outing. This kids stuff is electric. He may get dropped by a few trigger happy owners, so pick him up and relax with the 30+ saves you just picked up.
Adam Lind-OF/DH (TOR)
Pick him up!!!! Before the season, I thought he would be the best hitter in the Blue Jays lineup, and Monday's performance didn't calm those thoughts down any. Could hit 30+ HRs this year.
Travis Snider-OF (TOR)
Stay away. The glow of a shiny new prospect is always something to ogle after, but most of the time they leave you with a major feeling of disappointment. Don't get me wrong, this kid will be great-just not this year. If you're feeling lucky though, I wouldn't try to convince you not to take him.
Thats all for today. Stay tuned for tomorrow-I'll list my top young players and have another list similar to this.
Pick him up. He was able to hold a potent Mets lineup to 1 run despite not having his best stuff. He could net you 15 wins and 200+ Ks.
Nelson Cruz-OF (TEX):
Pick him up. This kid is quickly shaking the "Quad-A" label that had been thrust upon him earlier in his career. He's been on a tear since entering Triple-A last season and I don't see him slowing down much this year barring injury. He could easily drive in 100+ runs hitting cleanup for the Rangers.
Hank Blalock-1B/3B/DH (TEX):
Wait and see. Yes, he did hit a fairly mammoth shot today, but I'm very wary of him because of his injury history. He could hit 25 HRs this year, but then again he may only play 50 games.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia-C (TEX):
Pick him up. (If there isn't a ton of depth at catcher in your league). He has the skill set to be a very productive catcher, but he will be splitting time with another young stud in Taylor Teagarden.
Kevin Milwood-SP (TEX)
Pick him up. His numbers were greatly inflated last year thanks in part to some awful luck. He should be significantly better this year.
Felipe Lopez-2B/SS/3B/OF (ARI)
Pick him up. This super-utility player will allow you to focus more on having just the best players as backups instead of worrying about getting each position covered, and he'll provided solid average, steals, and runs while doing so.
Tony Clark-1B (ARI)
Stay away. He's not promised playing time, and has a very difficult time making contact. No thanks.
Cesar Izturis-SS (BAL)
Stay away. Had a nice first game of the season, but there's a reason he was the last batter on a well below average Baltimore team.
Emilio Bonifacio-2B/3B (FLA)
Pick him up. Only if you want a lot cheap steals, an average average, and little help in the other categories. You could do worse with a backup 2B/3B.
Paul Maholm-SP (PIT)
Pick him up. This guy was a very solid pitcher last year, and is only 26. I think he puts together a season similar to last year.
Jason Motte-RP (STL)
Pick him up. So what, he had one bad outing. This kids stuff is electric. He may get dropped by a few trigger happy owners, so pick him up and relax with the 30+ saves you just picked up.
Adam Lind-OF/DH (TOR)
Pick him up!!!! Before the season, I thought he would be the best hitter in the Blue Jays lineup, and Monday's performance didn't calm those thoughts down any. Could hit 30+ HRs this year.
Travis Snider-OF (TOR)
Stay away. The glow of a shiny new prospect is always something to ogle after, but most of the time they leave you with a major feeling of disappointment. Don't get me wrong, this kid will be great-just not this year. If you're feeling lucky though, I wouldn't try to convince you not to take him.
Thats all for today. Stay tuned for tomorrow-I'll list my top young players and have another list similar to this.
What should I do about...
Now that baseball season is finally here, it kicked off last night with a 4-1 win by the Braves over the Phillies, I will be posting a daily (or almost daily) tab of:
Jeff Francoeur (ATL):
Stay away. Sure he hit a home run yesterday, but it really wasn't all that impressive of a blast, and it was his only hit of the game. He has tweaked some things in his stance, but I'm not sold he's back to his old self again.
Jordan Schafer (ATL):
He did hit a home run in his first big league at bat and did finish the day 2-3 with a walk. That being said, I wouldn't take the bait on him. He was a Double A player last year, and if you project his stats out to a 550 AB season, they would be: 16 Homeruns, 80 RBIs, 72 Runs, 28 Doubles, and 130 or so strikeouts. His AA numbers weren't even worthy of fantasy starting material, so why would you want that on your team?
Brett Myers (PHI):
He did give up 3 HRs yesterday and didn't have his best command, but I don't think there is any reason to freak out on him. Give him a few starts and he should be back to the Brett Myers of last year (post all star break).
Check back tonight and I'll have some more updates on today's players.
- Under the radar players you should keep an eye on
- Low value players who had breakthrough game(s) and whether or not you should try to get them
- High value players who are struggling and if you should try to deal them or not.
- Anything else fantasy baseball related really.
Jeff Francoeur (ATL):
Stay away. Sure he hit a home run yesterday, but it really wasn't all that impressive of a blast, and it was his only hit of the game. He has tweaked some things in his stance, but I'm not sold he's back to his old self again.
Jordan Schafer (ATL):
He did hit a home run in his first big league at bat and did finish the day 2-3 with a walk. That being said, I wouldn't take the bait on him. He was a Double A player last year, and if you project his stats out to a 550 AB season, they would be: 16 Homeruns, 80 RBIs, 72 Runs, 28 Doubles, and 130 or so strikeouts. His AA numbers weren't even worthy of fantasy starting material, so why would you want that on your team?
Brett Myers (PHI):
He did give up 3 HRs yesterday and didn't have his best command, but I don't think there is any reason to freak out on him. Give him a few starts and he should be back to the Brett Myers of last year (post all star break).
Check back tonight and I'll have some more updates on today's players.
Friday, April 3, 2009
March TE Rankings
Tier one
1. Jason Witten (DAL)
Already was Romo's top target last year. He'll only see more passes go his way now that TO is gone.
2. Antonio Gates (SD)
Wasn't 100 percent last season, yet still put up very good numbers (60 rec. 785 yds and 8 TDs). He should be healthy again this year and his stats will reflect that.
3. Tony Gonzalez (KC)
The best TE in football last year and it really wasn't all that close. I think his numbers will drop off a small amount though because Cassel doesn't go to his TE's that much, prefering the outside, and Gonzalez is getting up there in age.
Tier two
4. Dallas Clark (IND)
Manning threw to him a ton the last 3 regular season games and in their playoff game 94 games total)-33 receptions for 339 yards and 2 TDs-which would project to 132 receptions, 1356 yards, and 8 tds over a 16 game season. Obviously he wont get those sorts of numbers but don't be shocked if he hits 80 or 90 catches and double digit TDs.
5. Owen Daniels (HOU)
He's increased his yards and receptions each year. Now if only we could do something about those touchdowns...
6. Kellen Winslow Jr (TB)
I'm a little unsure if this is too high for him or not, but I'm going to go with the gut feeling and say he has a year almost reminiscent of 2007.
7. Chris Cooley (WAS)
He had the best year of his career, if you only count catches and yards. Dude only scored 1 touchdown all of last year after getting 6,7,6, and 8 in his first four years in the league.
Tier three
8. Dustin Keller (NYJ)
Was an explosive threat at TE in the second half of last year, and often times young QBs look for their TEs more. Sounds like a winning combination to me.
9. Greg Olsen (CHI)
The Bears should throw a lot more with Jay Cutler in the mix now, and Olsen is the number 1 or 2 pass catcher on this team.
10. Zach Miller (OAK)
Only player on the Raiders to surpass 50 catches, and 40, and amazingly 30. Russell obviously loves throwing to this kid and no one else on this team so until they find another reliable threat, Miller will be ranked pretty high.
11. Tony Scheffler (DEN)
He's a great recieving tight end, but he has a very hard time staying healthy.
12. Jeremy Shockey (NO)
Same as above, except his injury list is a bit longer.
13. John Carlson (SEA)
He reminds me of Owen Daniels and Chris Cooley, not amazing athletes, but they get open and catch the football. That being said, the addition of TJ Houshmanzadeh hurts his value some.
14. Anthony Fasano (MIA)
He and Greg Camarillo were Chad Pennington's favorite targets most of last year, and now Camarillo is coming off ACL surgery.
15. Heath Miller (PIT)
It wouldn't surprise me if he lost his job this year. He looked so incredibly slow in the playoffs it wasn't even funny.
Tier four
16. Todd Heap (BAL)
He's gotten hurt so much the last few years that he is merely a shell of his former self. They brought in LJ Smith as a backup...not that he's any better or less injury prone.
17. Bo Scaife (TEN)
Surprised everyone last year with his play, but then again he's done that since his rookie year.
18. Visanthe Shinacoe (MIN)
Had a solid year last season, and the Vikings didn't really add anybody who would cut into his reception totals.
19. Brent Celek (PHI)
Considering he wasn't even a full time starter, he faired pretty well last year. LJ Smith signed with another team this offseason so Celek's numbers should rise.
20. Randy McMichael (STL)
Was quietly having a good season until he broke his tibia and tore a ligament in his leg.
21. Kevin Boss (NYG)
His greatest contributions last year were on the goaline (6 TDs). Will have to step up his play with the recent release of Plaxico.
22. Benjamin Watson (NE)
Injuries have sapped the potential of the former 1st round pick, but if he can stay healthy he could see a 40 reception season this year.
23. Marcedes Lewis (JAX)
This former 1st round pick quietly had a solid season (41-489-2). Could repeat, but something tells me he will fall a little short of those numbers.
24. Vernon Davis (SF)
A member of the 49ers All-Bust Team, this physical freak will be lucky to keep his job this year.
25. Donald Lee (GB)
2nd year man Jermichael Finley may steal some playing time.
Tier five
26. Ben Patrick (ARI)
27. Dante Rosario (CAR)
28. Robert Royal (BUF)
29. Steve Heiden (CLE)
30. Ben Utecht (CIN)
31. Martellus Bennett (DAL)
32. Ben Hartstock (ATL)
Tier six
33. Billy Miller (NO)
34. Alge Crumpler (TEN)
35. David Martin (MIA)
36. Leonard Pope (ARI)
37. Desmond Clark (CHI)
38. Daniel Graham (DEN)
39. David Thomas (NE)
40. Jermichael Finley (GB)
41. Alex Smith (TB)
42. Jeff King (CAR)
1. Jason Witten (DAL)
Already was Romo's top target last year. He'll only see more passes go his way now that TO is gone.
2. Antonio Gates (SD)
Wasn't 100 percent last season, yet still put up very good numbers (60 rec. 785 yds and 8 TDs). He should be healthy again this year and his stats will reflect that.
3. Tony Gonzalez (KC)
The best TE in football last year and it really wasn't all that close. I think his numbers will drop off a small amount though because Cassel doesn't go to his TE's that much, prefering the outside, and Gonzalez is getting up there in age.
Tier two
4. Dallas Clark (IND)
Manning threw to him a ton the last 3 regular season games and in their playoff game 94 games total)-33 receptions for 339 yards and 2 TDs-which would project to 132 receptions, 1356 yards, and 8 tds over a 16 game season. Obviously he wont get those sorts of numbers but don't be shocked if he hits 80 or 90 catches and double digit TDs.
5. Owen Daniels (HOU)
He's increased his yards and receptions each year. Now if only we could do something about those touchdowns...
6. Kellen Winslow Jr (TB)
I'm a little unsure if this is too high for him or not, but I'm going to go with the gut feeling and say he has a year almost reminiscent of 2007.
7. Chris Cooley (WAS)
He had the best year of his career, if you only count catches and yards. Dude only scored 1 touchdown all of last year after getting 6,7,6, and 8 in his first four years in the league.
Tier three
8. Dustin Keller (NYJ)
Was an explosive threat at TE in the second half of last year, and often times young QBs look for their TEs more. Sounds like a winning combination to me.
9. Greg Olsen (CHI)
The Bears should throw a lot more with Jay Cutler in the mix now, and Olsen is the number 1 or 2 pass catcher on this team.
10. Zach Miller (OAK)
Only player on the Raiders to surpass 50 catches, and 40, and amazingly 30. Russell obviously loves throwing to this kid and no one else on this team so until they find another reliable threat, Miller will be ranked pretty high.
11. Tony Scheffler (DEN)
He's a great recieving tight end, but he has a very hard time staying healthy.
12. Jeremy Shockey (NO)
Same as above, except his injury list is a bit longer.
13. John Carlson (SEA)
He reminds me of Owen Daniels and Chris Cooley, not amazing athletes, but they get open and catch the football. That being said, the addition of TJ Houshmanzadeh hurts his value some.
14. Anthony Fasano (MIA)
He and Greg Camarillo were Chad Pennington's favorite targets most of last year, and now Camarillo is coming off ACL surgery.
15. Heath Miller (PIT)
It wouldn't surprise me if he lost his job this year. He looked so incredibly slow in the playoffs it wasn't even funny.
Tier four
16. Todd Heap (BAL)
He's gotten hurt so much the last few years that he is merely a shell of his former self. They brought in LJ Smith as a backup...not that he's any better or less injury prone.
17. Bo Scaife (TEN)
Surprised everyone last year with his play, but then again he's done that since his rookie year.
18. Visanthe Shinacoe (MIN)
Had a solid year last season, and the Vikings didn't really add anybody who would cut into his reception totals.
19. Brent Celek (PHI)
Considering he wasn't even a full time starter, he faired pretty well last year. LJ Smith signed with another team this offseason so Celek's numbers should rise.
20. Randy McMichael (STL)
Was quietly having a good season until he broke his tibia and tore a ligament in his leg.
21. Kevin Boss (NYG)
His greatest contributions last year were on the goaline (6 TDs). Will have to step up his play with the recent release of Plaxico.
22. Benjamin Watson (NE)
Injuries have sapped the potential of the former 1st round pick, but if he can stay healthy he could see a 40 reception season this year.
23. Marcedes Lewis (JAX)
This former 1st round pick quietly had a solid season (41-489-2). Could repeat, but something tells me he will fall a little short of those numbers.
24. Vernon Davis (SF)
A member of the 49ers All-Bust Team, this physical freak will be lucky to keep his job this year.
25. Donald Lee (GB)
2nd year man Jermichael Finley may steal some playing time.
Tier five
26. Ben Patrick (ARI)
27. Dante Rosario (CAR)
28. Robert Royal (BUF)
29. Steve Heiden (CLE)
30. Ben Utecht (CIN)
31. Martellus Bennett (DAL)
32. Ben Hartstock (ATL)
Tier six
33. Billy Miller (NO)
34. Alge Crumpler (TEN)
35. David Martin (MIA)
36. Leonard Pope (ARI)
37. Desmond Clark (CHI)
38. Daniel Graham (DEN)
39. David Thomas (NE)
40. Jermichael Finley (GB)
41. Alex Smith (TB)
42. Jeff King (CAR)
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
March WR rankings
Tier one
1. Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
If you watched the playoffs, there is no explanation needed.
2. Andre Johnson (HOU)
Almost a lick for 100 receptions a year (hint: try to get him in ppr leagues)
Tier two
3. Steve Smith (CAR)
Not very far behind the first two, only problem is how much the Panthers run
4. Brandon Marshall (DEN)
Subject to change after Cutler is traded and he is suspended
5. Randy Moss (NE)
Brady is back at QB, remember what they did in 2007?
6. Calvin Johnson (DET)
Possibly the most physically gifted athlete in the league, good. Third year in the league, good. Earns his paychecks in Detroit....dang. Two outta three ain't bad.
7. Roddy White (ATL)
Was Matt Ryan's primary target last year and the Falcons will pass more this year. Only downside is with Ryan's extra experience he will probably start distributing the more more evenly now.
8. Reggie Wayne (IND)
The number 1 option in a very pass-happy offense with a prolific QB. Sounds good to me.
Tier three
9. Anquan Boldin (ARI)
Top 5 WR on pure talent, but injuries and having Larry Fitzgerald lined up opposite him downgrades him some.
10. Wes Welker (NE)
111 and 112 receptions, respectively, last two years. Could be ranked a few spots higher in ppr league.
11. Marques Colston (NO)
Number 1 option on the most pass happy team in the NFL, but Brees is a fan of spreading the wealth.
12. TJ Houshmandzadeh (SEA)
Great possession type receiver. Should do well in the Seahawks West Coast offense.
Tier four
13. Dwayne Bowe (KC)
Passing game should be better this year with Cassel manning the helm, but the addition of Bobby Engram will cut into his catches slightly.
14. Greg Jennings (GB)
Started off on fire last year but cooled off considerably down the stretch. Expect a bit more consistency this year, but not much.
15. Braylon Edwards (CLE)
Who is the real Braylon, 2007 or 2008? My guess is pretty much right in between.
16. Vincent Jackson (SD)
Emerged as a true deep threat last year, averaging 18.6 yards per reception on 59 catches. Expect 15 to 20 more catches and a few more TDs. (Might need to move him up on the board...)
17. Santana Moss (WAS)
To be honest, I hate him as a fantasy player. Overshadows 150 yard, 3 TD games with too many 1 reception performances. I wouldn't draft him unless he falls way deep in the draft, but then i would immediately try to trade him.
18. Eddie Royal (Den)
A very explosive receiver, should only get better with experience. If Cutler gets moved though he may fall considerably.
19. Hines Ward (PIT)
Returned to the 1,000 yard mark last season, but I think that'll be the last time that happens.
20. Terrell Owens (BUF)
The Bills pass much less than the Cowboys, their QB is no where near Romo's caliber, and he is now 35. Bust warning.
Tier five
21. Antonio Bryant (TB)
Always had the talent, but never got his head straight. I'm not sold his production will continue.
22. Roy Williams (DET)
Jerry Jones shelled out a LOT for this guy. The pressure will be on him to produce.
23. Laveranues Coles (CIN)
With his new team, he should post similar, maybe marginally better numbers than he did the last 2 years.
24. DeSean Jackson (PHI)
Super talented player, but will he do one too many stupid things to not see the field as much?
25. Lee Evans (BUF)
The addition of Owens helps him out tremendously, but it also takes away the number of balls he'll see.
26. Santonio Holmes (PIT)
Talented player, yes, but he will be over hyped by everyone because of his Superbowl performance. Remember how well everyone was rewarded from Deion Branch's Superbowl heroics?
27. Chad Ocho Cinco (CIN)
The thing that made him a star (his passion, fire, and work ethic) seems to be slowly fading away, as will his (on the field) star status.
28. Derrick Mason (BAL)
Baltimore's number 1 passing target. But, that's not exciting for fantasy players or Ravens fans.
29. Bernard Berrian (MIN)
A great deep threat, but thats really it. Won't get a consistent number of catches because of that.
Tier six
30. Bobby Engram (KC)
Should help bolster the passing attack of the Chiefs, age and injuries are a huge concern though.
31. Kevin Walter (HOU)
Was a solid #2 for the Texans last year, expect similar numbers.
32. Steve Breaston (ARI)
Yes, he did surpass the 1,000 yard mark last year, but if Boldin and Fitzgerald stay healthy and the Cards try to run a bit more like I think they will, he could slide back to between 700 and 800 yards.
33. Lance Moore (NO)
Leading receiver for the best passing team last year, but Colston is back for the whole year and Shockey now has a full year of this offense under his belt. His numbers will drop some.
34. Donald Driver (GB)
Numbers have dropped each of the last three years, and at 34 with a very promising receiver opposite him, expect that trend to continue.
35. Dwayne Jarrett (CAR)
I think he really steps it up this year and overtakes Mushin Muhhammad for the #2 WR spot.
36. Domenik Hixon (NYG)
They won't pass a ton, and when they do they will spread it around, but somebody has to be the lead guy.
37. Donnie Avery (STL)
Only had 2, maybe 3 good games last year, but with Torry Holt gone he is now the go-to WR on this team.
38. Anthony Gonzalez (IND)
Will be the third or forth option on most plays (behind Wayne, Clark, and occasionally the backs) but on this team, that'll still lead to several catches.
39. Jerricho Cotchery (NYG)
Will be the number 1 option now, but how often will his QB(s) be able to get him the ball?
40. Devin Hester (CHI)
Will he be able to transform his amazing natural ability into solid WR skills? I say it'll take one more year.
Tier seven
41. Michael Jenkins (ATL)
42. Torry Holt (FA)
43. Malcolm Floyd (SD)
44. Mushin Muhhammad (CAR)
45. Tedd Ginn Jr. (MIA)
SEE: Devin Hester
46. Marvin Harrison (FA)
47. Kevin Curtis (PHI)
48. Devin Thomas (WAS)
Still a year away
49. Johnnie Lee Higgins (OAK)
50. Jason Hill (SF)
51. Miles Austin (DAL)
52. Greg Camarillo (MIA)
53. Steve Smith (NYG)
54. Reggie Brown (PHI)
55. Mark Clayton (BAL)
56. Davone Bess (MIA)
57. Patrick Crayton (DAL)
Tier eight
58. Sidney Rice (MIN)
59. Harry Douglas (ATL)
60. Joshua Cribbs (CLE)
61. Robert Meachem (NO)
62. Plaxico Burress (NYG)
There is no guarantee he'll play this year, but pay attention to whats going on with him.
63. Jordy Nelson (GB)
64. Matt Jones (FA)
Someone will sign him more than likely, and he could be a solid contributor to whoever does.
65. Nate Washington (TEN)
66. Chris Henry (CIN)
67. Reggie Williams (JAX)
68. Deion Branch (SEA)
69. Isaac Bruce (SF)
70. Michael Clayton
1. Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
If you watched the playoffs, there is no explanation needed.
2. Andre Johnson (HOU)
Almost a lick for 100 receptions a year (hint: try to get him in ppr leagues)
Tier two
3. Steve Smith (CAR)
Not very far behind the first two, only problem is how much the Panthers run
4. Brandon Marshall (DEN)
Subject to change after Cutler is traded and he is suspended
5. Randy Moss (NE)
Brady is back at QB, remember what they did in 2007?
6. Calvin Johnson (DET)
Possibly the most physically gifted athlete in the league, good. Third year in the league, good. Earns his paychecks in Detroit....dang. Two outta three ain't bad.
7. Roddy White (ATL)
Was Matt Ryan's primary target last year and the Falcons will pass more this year. Only downside is with Ryan's extra experience he will probably start distributing the more more evenly now.
8. Reggie Wayne (IND)
The number 1 option in a very pass-happy offense with a prolific QB. Sounds good to me.
Tier three
9. Anquan Boldin (ARI)
Top 5 WR on pure talent, but injuries and having Larry Fitzgerald lined up opposite him downgrades him some.
10. Wes Welker (NE)
111 and 112 receptions, respectively, last two years. Could be ranked a few spots higher in ppr league.
11. Marques Colston (NO)
Number 1 option on the most pass happy team in the NFL, but Brees is a fan of spreading the wealth.
12. TJ Houshmandzadeh (SEA)
Great possession type receiver. Should do well in the Seahawks West Coast offense.
Tier four
13. Dwayne Bowe (KC)
Passing game should be better this year with Cassel manning the helm, but the addition of Bobby Engram will cut into his catches slightly.
14. Greg Jennings (GB)
Started off on fire last year but cooled off considerably down the stretch. Expect a bit more consistency this year, but not much.
15. Braylon Edwards (CLE)
Who is the real Braylon, 2007 or 2008? My guess is pretty much right in between.
16. Vincent Jackson (SD)
Emerged as a true deep threat last year, averaging 18.6 yards per reception on 59 catches. Expect 15 to 20 more catches and a few more TDs. (Might need to move him up on the board...)
17. Santana Moss (WAS)
To be honest, I hate him as a fantasy player. Overshadows 150 yard, 3 TD games with too many 1 reception performances. I wouldn't draft him unless he falls way deep in the draft, but then i would immediately try to trade him.
18. Eddie Royal (Den)
A very explosive receiver, should only get better with experience. If Cutler gets moved though he may fall considerably.
19. Hines Ward (PIT)
Returned to the 1,000 yard mark last season, but I think that'll be the last time that happens.
20. Terrell Owens (BUF)
The Bills pass much less than the Cowboys, their QB is no where near Romo's caliber, and he is now 35. Bust warning.
Tier five
21. Antonio Bryant (TB)
Always had the talent, but never got his head straight. I'm not sold his production will continue.
22. Roy Williams (DET)
Jerry Jones shelled out a LOT for this guy. The pressure will be on him to produce.
23. Laveranues Coles (CIN)
With his new team, he should post similar, maybe marginally better numbers than he did the last 2 years.
24. DeSean Jackson (PHI)
Super talented player, but will he do one too many stupid things to not see the field as much?
25. Lee Evans (BUF)
The addition of Owens helps him out tremendously, but it also takes away the number of balls he'll see.
26. Santonio Holmes (PIT)
Talented player, yes, but he will be over hyped by everyone because of his Superbowl performance. Remember how well everyone was rewarded from Deion Branch's Superbowl heroics?
27. Chad Ocho Cinco (CIN)
The thing that made him a star (his passion, fire, and work ethic) seems to be slowly fading away, as will his (on the field) star status.
28. Derrick Mason (BAL)
Baltimore's number 1 passing target. But, that's not exciting for fantasy players or Ravens fans.
29. Bernard Berrian (MIN)
A great deep threat, but thats really it. Won't get a consistent number of catches because of that.
Tier six
30. Bobby Engram (KC)
Should help bolster the passing attack of the Chiefs, age and injuries are a huge concern though.
31. Kevin Walter (HOU)
Was a solid #2 for the Texans last year, expect similar numbers.
32. Steve Breaston (ARI)
Yes, he did surpass the 1,000 yard mark last year, but if Boldin and Fitzgerald stay healthy and the Cards try to run a bit more like I think they will, he could slide back to between 700 and 800 yards.
33. Lance Moore (NO)
Leading receiver for the best passing team last year, but Colston is back for the whole year and Shockey now has a full year of this offense under his belt. His numbers will drop some.
34. Donald Driver (GB)
Numbers have dropped each of the last three years, and at 34 with a very promising receiver opposite him, expect that trend to continue.
35. Dwayne Jarrett (CAR)
I think he really steps it up this year and overtakes Mushin Muhhammad for the #2 WR spot.
36. Domenik Hixon (NYG)
They won't pass a ton, and when they do they will spread it around, but somebody has to be the lead guy.
37. Donnie Avery (STL)
Only had 2, maybe 3 good games last year, but with Torry Holt gone he is now the go-to WR on this team.
38. Anthony Gonzalez (IND)
Will be the third or forth option on most plays (behind Wayne, Clark, and occasionally the backs) but on this team, that'll still lead to several catches.
39. Jerricho Cotchery (NYG)
Will be the number 1 option now, but how often will his QB(s) be able to get him the ball?
40. Devin Hester (CHI)
Will he be able to transform his amazing natural ability into solid WR skills? I say it'll take one more year.
Tier seven
41. Michael Jenkins (ATL)
42. Torry Holt (FA)
43. Malcolm Floyd (SD)
44. Mushin Muhhammad (CAR)
45. Tedd Ginn Jr. (MIA)
SEE: Devin Hester
46. Marvin Harrison (FA)
47. Kevin Curtis (PHI)
48. Devin Thomas (WAS)
Still a year away
49. Johnnie Lee Higgins (OAK)
50. Jason Hill (SF)
51. Miles Austin (DAL)
52. Greg Camarillo (MIA)
53. Steve Smith (NYG)
54. Reggie Brown (PHI)
55. Mark Clayton (BAL)
56. Davone Bess (MIA)
57. Patrick Crayton (DAL)
Tier eight
58. Sidney Rice (MIN)
59. Harry Douglas (ATL)
60. Joshua Cribbs (CLE)
61. Robert Meachem (NO)
62. Plaxico Burress (NYG)
There is no guarantee he'll play this year, but pay attention to whats going on with him.
63. Jordy Nelson (GB)
64. Matt Jones (FA)
Someone will sign him more than likely, and he could be a solid contributor to whoever does.
65. Nate Washington (TEN)
66. Chris Henry (CIN)
67. Reggie Williams (JAX)
68. Deion Branch (SEA)
69. Isaac Bruce (SF)
70. Michael Clayton
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
March RB Rankings
Tier one
1. Adrian Peterson (MIN)
Minnesota now has a QB who can keep the pressure of off him.
2. Clinton Portis (WAS)
Washington's offense should begin and end with him this year
3. Michael Turner (ATL)
Amazing runner, but each year Matt Ryan progresses, the Falcons will throw more and therefore Turner's numbers will dip slightly.
4. DeAngelo Williams (CAR)
Threat to score every time he touches the ball. Beware of an increased load for Jonathan Stewart though.
Tier two
5. Brandon Jacobs (NYG)
Now that Ward is gone, expect the mountain of a man Jacobs recieve 300+ carries, if he stays healthy.
6. Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)
No longer has to share touches with Fred Taylor
7. Matt Forte (CHI)
Was Chicago's do-all and end-all player on offense last year. They haven't added much so expect more of the same.
8. Steven Jackson (STL)
Would be top 3 if he wasn't so injury prone (and if the Rams had an O-line)
Tier three
9. Chris Jonson (TEN)
Sensational rookie campaign, but runners that rely so much on speed always worry me...
10. Brian Westbrook (PHI)
The most versatile running back since Marshall Faulk, he just has a problem staying on the field.
11. Steve Slaton (HOU)
A perfect fit for the zone run scheme. Expect another great year.
12. Frank Gore (SF)
A versatile back who can contribute greatly...when he is healthy and playing on the west coast.
13 LaDanian Tomlinson (SD)
His YPC should head north of the 4.0 mark again, but Sproles will steal quite a few touches.
14. Marion Barber (DAL)
Punishing runners tend to have very short runs atop the fantasy world. Has his body taken too much abuse?
Tier 4
15. Ronnie Brown (MIA)
Now that he is over a year removed from his torn ACL, he should be quite a dynamic all around back again.
16. Thomas Jones (NYJ)
He's over 30, has a QB nobody is afraid of, and has a terrific athlete behind him. Bust watch!
17. Kevin Smith (DET)
Really came on strong the end of last year, but he plays for the Lions, that is never good.
18. Darren McFadden (OAK)
The Raiders have 2 starting material RBs in the backfield, he's had an injury history, and a below average O-Line. Don't put too much stock in him.
19. Willie Parker (PIT)
Shared carries with Mewelde Moore last year, and often times got outperformed. Now Mendenhall will be added to that mix.
20. Jonathan Stewart (CAR)
A load at runningback, he will be a very solid #2 this year.
Tier five
21. Ryan Grant (GB)
Didn't prove that the 2007 Ryan Grant was who he really is.
22. Joseph Addai (IND)
Banged up all of last year, something tells me he'll continue to be injured this year.
23. Pierre Thomas (NO)
Will take over the Deuce McAllister role, only will play it much more effectively. Still, the Saints will throw it 40+ times a game, leaving little value for Thomas
24. Cedric Benson (CIN)
Really came on strong down the stretch. Has he finally figured it out?
25. Larry Johnson (KC)
A definite canidate for suspensions, fines, benchings, etc.
26. Derrick Ward (TB)
Tampa has 3 or 4 runners who could all start. Be wary.
27. Willis McGahee (BAL)
Look for the Ray Rice to begin in Baltimore sooner rather than later
28. Marshawn Lynch (BUF)
If Fred Jackson performs well in his place, he could have trouble finding the starting lineup again.
29. Jamal Lewis (CLE)
He's old, he's slow, he's lucky he's Cleveland's only real option at RB (right now)
30. Sammy Morris (NE)
Will share carries with a stable of New England runners
31. Fred Jackson (BUF)
Performed better than Lynch last year. I expect the same this year.
32. Tim Hightower (ARI)
Has the goalline duties locked up, but will he be the go to guy for the rest of the field?
33. Leon Washington (NYJ)
Dynamic playmaker could steal several touches from started Thomas Jones
34. LenDale White (TEN)
I'm not sure he could break a 5.0 flat in the 40, but he will get his touchdowns
35. Darren Sproles (SD)
See: Leon Washington
36. Ray Rice (BAL)
I predict he takes over the starting job 6 weeks in.
37. Reggie Bush (NO)
A scat type back coming off microfracture surgery? No, thanks
38. Maurice Morris (SEA)
Was Seattle's most effective runner last year. (Congrats?)
Tier seix
39. Tashard Choice
40. LaMont Jordan
41. Jamaal Charles
42. Earnest Graham
43. Felix Jones
44. Ahmad Bradshaw
45. Carnell Williams
46. Justin Fargas
47. Michael Bush
48. Rashard Mendenhall
49. Mewelde Moore
50. Le'Ron McClain
51. Julius Jones
52. Warrick Dunn
53. Ricky Williams
54. Fred Taylor
55. Edgerrin James
1. Adrian Peterson (MIN)
Minnesota now has a QB who can keep the pressure of off him.
2. Clinton Portis (WAS)
Washington's offense should begin and end with him this year
3. Michael Turner (ATL)
Amazing runner, but each year Matt Ryan progresses, the Falcons will throw more and therefore Turner's numbers will dip slightly.
4. DeAngelo Williams (CAR)
Threat to score every time he touches the ball. Beware of an increased load for Jonathan Stewart though.
Tier two
5. Brandon Jacobs (NYG)
Now that Ward is gone, expect the mountain of a man Jacobs recieve 300+ carries, if he stays healthy.
6. Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)
No longer has to share touches with Fred Taylor
7. Matt Forte (CHI)
Was Chicago's do-all and end-all player on offense last year. They haven't added much so expect more of the same.
8. Steven Jackson (STL)
Would be top 3 if he wasn't so injury prone (and if the Rams had an O-line)
Tier three
9. Chris Jonson (TEN)
Sensational rookie campaign, but runners that rely so much on speed always worry me...
10. Brian Westbrook (PHI)
The most versatile running back since Marshall Faulk, he just has a problem staying on the field.
11. Steve Slaton (HOU)
A perfect fit for the zone run scheme. Expect another great year.
12. Frank Gore (SF)
A versatile back who can contribute greatly...when he is healthy and playing on the west coast.
13 LaDanian Tomlinson (SD)
His YPC should head north of the 4.0 mark again, but Sproles will steal quite a few touches.
14. Marion Barber (DAL)
Punishing runners tend to have very short runs atop the fantasy world. Has his body taken too much abuse?
Tier 4
15. Ronnie Brown (MIA)
Now that he is over a year removed from his torn ACL, he should be quite a dynamic all around back again.
16. Thomas Jones (NYJ)
He's over 30, has a QB nobody is afraid of, and has a terrific athlete behind him. Bust watch!
17. Kevin Smith (DET)
Really came on strong the end of last year, but he plays for the Lions, that is never good.
18. Darren McFadden (OAK)
The Raiders have 2 starting material RBs in the backfield, he's had an injury history, and a below average O-Line. Don't put too much stock in him.
19. Willie Parker (PIT)
Shared carries with Mewelde Moore last year, and often times got outperformed. Now Mendenhall will be added to that mix.
20. Jonathan Stewart (CAR)
A load at runningback, he will be a very solid #2 this year.
Tier five
21. Ryan Grant (GB)
Didn't prove that the 2007 Ryan Grant was who he really is.
22. Joseph Addai (IND)
Banged up all of last year, something tells me he'll continue to be injured this year.
23. Pierre Thomas (NO)
Will take over the Deuce McAllister role, only will play it much more effectively. Still, the Saints will throw it 40+ times a game, leaving little value for Thomas
24. Cedric Benson (CIN)
Really came on strong down the stretch. Has he finally figured it out?
25. Larry Johnson (KC)
A definite canidate for suspensions, fines, benchings, etc.
26. Derrick Ward (TB)
Tampa has 3 or 4 runners who could all start. Be wary.
27. Willis McGahee (BAL)
Look for the Ray Rice to begin in Baltimore sooner rather than later
28. Marshawn Lynch (BUF)
If Fred Jackson performs well in his place, he could have trouble finding the starting lineup again.
29. Jamal Lewis (CLE)
He's old, he's slow, he's lucky he's Cleveland's only real option at RB (right now)
30. Sammy Morris (NE)
Will share carries with a stable of New England runners
31. Fred Jackson (BUF)
Performed better than Lynch last year. I expect the same this year.
32. Tim Hightower (ARI)
Has the goalline duties locked up, but will he be the go to guy for the rest of the field?
33. Leon Washington (NYJ)
Dynamic playmaker could steal several touches from started Thomas Jones
34. LenDale White (TEN)
I'm not sure he could break a 5.0 flat in the 40, but he will get his touchdowns
35. Darren Sproles (SD)
See: Leon Washington
36. Ray Rice (BAL)
I predict he takes over the starting job 6 weeks in.
37. Reggie Bush (NO)
A scat type back coming off microfracture surgery? No, thanks
38. Maurice Morris (SEA)
Was Seattle's most effective runner last year. (Congrats?)
Tier seix
39. Tashard Choice
40. LaMont Jordan
41. Jamaal Charles
42. Earnest Graham
43. Felix Jones
44. Ahmad Bradshaw
45. Carnell Williams
46. Justin Fargas
47. Michael Bush
48. Rashard Mendenhall
49. Mewelde Moore
50. Le'Ron McClain
51. Julius Jones
52. Warrick Dunn
53. Ricky Williams
54. Fred Taylor
55. Edgerrin James
Monday, March 30, 2009
March QB Rankings
Ah, its about that time of year...almost. Football is...kind of...about to kick off its 2009-2010 season, and with that comes countless hours of fantasy football research, looking up stats, trying to find the next sleeper, and also the drafts themselves. To help you out a little, I'm going to try to help you all out a little by giving you monthly fantasy rankings by position. And where else would we start but quarterback?
Tier one
1. Drew Brees (NO)
He threw for over 5,00o yards last year and with Deuce gone and Reggie Bush recovering from microfracture surgery, look for the Saints to chuck it as much or more as they did last year.
2. Peyton Manning (IND)
A lock for 3,800+ passing yards and 25 TDs. Sign me up.
3. Tom Brady (NE)
Yes the knee injury is scary, but with all the rules protecting quarterbacks, he should be alright. He won't be the 2007 Brady, but 4,000 yards and 30 TDs is likely.
Tier two
4. Philip Rivers (SD)
Was 2008 an anomaly or the beginning of a great career? I'd say the latter.
5. Kurt Warner (ARI)
His 2008 season was insane, but at his age can you really predict another season like that? 2009 should be close, but not the same.
6. Donovan McNabb (PHI)
Proved all of the critics wrong last year, again. Expect another big season from McNabb
7. Jay Cutler (DEN)
Its never good when a quarterback and coach aren't on the same page, but the product on the field shouldn't be affected. If he falls to the 3rd or 4th round, pick him up and reap the benefits
8. Tony Romo (DAL)
I think Dallas will become much more of a grind-it-out team this year which obviously will affect Romo's stats. He'll still be a very solid fantasy quarterback this year.
Tier three
9. Aaron Rodgers (GB)
He had a great year last year, but I'm still not 100 percent sold on him. I'd draft him as my number 2 QB.
10. Carson Palmer (CIN)
The elbow injury has me worried, but he could return to his '07 form. If you draft him, make sure you get a reliable backup.
11. Matt Ryan (ATL)
Atlanta's QB of the future outdid everyone's expectations last year. Can he prove us wrong again by becoming one of the top fantasy QBs in the league this year? I wouldn't go that far, but he should be very good.
12. Matt Shaub (HOU)
The guy does get hurt quite a bit, but if he could ever string together a full season, 4,000 yards is a possibility.
13. Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
His numbers last year really weren't that great. Expect numbers a little better but nothing drastic.
14. Matt Cassel (KC)
Was Cassel a product of Belichick's sytem and 3 years of grooming in aformentioned system or is he the real deal? I'd say he'll produce somewhere inbetween how he started last year and how he ended.
Tier four
15. Eli Manning (NYG)
A very good real-life quarterback, much of his fantasy value is taken away by the Giants running game.
16. Chad Pennington (MIA)
The Dolphins really through the ball around the yard a lot more than I thought they would, granted it was a fair amount of dinking and dunking, but I expect them to focus on the ground game even more this year now that Ronnie Brown is a year-and-a-half removed from his torn ACL.
17. Joe Flacco (BAL)
Delaware's finest struggled early on (1 TD and 7 picks threw 5 games) but finished with 14 TDs and 12 INTs. Expect Flacco to continue to be a game manager this year, therefore not finishing with outrageous stats
18. Kyle Orton (CHI)
He was very good for part of the year then fell off a little after his injury. Potential sleeper here.
19. David Garrard (JAX)
2007 is looking like a fluke year. Don't expect much more than 3,300 yds and 16 TDs.
20. Matt Hasslebeck (SEA)
Many people will have him ranked higher, but I have a feeling he will be on the sidelines often due to injury. Draft him if you want, I'm staying away.
Tier five
21. Marc Bulger (STL)
Hasn't been the same since he got his contract. Don't be surprised if he loses his job before the season reaches its half-way point.
22. Shaun Hill (SF)
He hasn't officially been named starter, but once he is, he'll move up a handful of spots.
23. Brady Quinn (CLE)
See above
24. Trent Edwards (BUF)
Getting T.O helps, but bottom line is he won't ever be a big-time numbers QB.
25. Kerry Collins (TEN)
He's a game manager not a game changer, and his numbers will reflect that.
26. Sage Rosenfels (MIN)
All he'll be asked to do is not turn the ball over. He's just not going to put up numbers here.
27. Jason Campbell (WAS)
Clinton Portis will be options 1, 2, and 3 for this team, leaving little time for Campbell to put up stats.
Tier six
28. Daunte Culpepper (DET)
He's still the QB for the Lions-at least for now-and as long as he, or anyone else is there...they are fantasy irrelevant.
29. Kellen Clemens (NYJ)
Hopefully a year of tips from Favre will do him some good. I'm betting it doesn't though and he and the Jets stumble through the season with little more than nothing for a passing game.
30. Jake Delhomme (CAR)
He threw 5 INTs in his last game, a playoff game, and had an entire offseason to think about that. He won't be the 30th best QB in fantasy-16 to 20 is likely- I just don't want anything to do with him this year.
31. Luke McCown (TB)
Maybe the Bucs know something we don't-I'm not biting.
32. JaMarcus Russell (OAK)
He has a strong arm and...well he likes to be overweight. No thanks
Tier seven (backups)
33. Jeff Garcia (FA)
34. Seneca Wallace (SEA)
35. Drew Stanton (DET)
36. Vince Young (TEN)
37. Matt Leinart (ARI)
38. Alex Smith (SF)
39. Derek Anderson (CLE)
40. Tarvares Jackson (MIN)
41. Tyler Thigpen (KC)
42. Brett Ratliff (NYJ)
43. Matt Moore (CAR)
44. Brock Berlin (STL)
45. Chad Henne (MIA)
Tier one
1. Drew Brees (NO)
He threw for over 5,00o yards last year and with Deuce gone and Reggie Bush recovering from microfracture surgery, look for the Saints to chuck it as much or more as they did last year.
2. Peyton Manning (IND)
A lock for 3,800+ passing yards and 25 TDs. Sign me up.
3. Tom Brady (NE)
Yes the knee injury is scary, but with all the rules protecting quarterbacks, he should be alright. He won't be the 2007 Brady, but 4,000 yards and 30 TDs is likely.
Tier two
4. Philip Rivers (SD)
Was 2008 an anomaly or the beginning of a great career? I'd say the latter.
5. Kurt Warner (ARI)
His 2008 season was insane, but at his age can you really predict another season like that? 2009 should be close, but not the same.
6. Donovan McNabb (PHI)
Proved all of the critics wrong last year, again. Expect another big season from McNabb
7. Jay Cutler (DEN)
Its never good when a quarterback and coach aren't on the same page, but the product on the field shouldn't be affected. If he falls to the 3rd or 4th round, pick him up and reap the benefits
8. Tony Romo (DAL)
I think Dallas will become much more of a grind-it-out team this year which obviously will affect Romo's stats. He'll still be a very solid fantasy quarterback this year.
Tier three
9. Aaron Rodgers (GB)
He had a great year last year, but I'm still not 100 percent sold on him. I'd draft him as my number 2 QB.
10. Carson Palmer (CIN)
The elbow injury has me worried, but he could return to his '07 form. If you draft him, make sure you get a reliable backup.
11. Matt Ryan (ATL)
Atlanta's QB of the future outdid everyone's expectations last year. Can he prove us wrong again by becoming one of the top fantasy QBs in the league this year? I wouldn't go that far, but he should be very good.
12. Matt Shaub (HOU)
The guy does get hurt quite a bit, but if he could ever string together a full season, 4,000 yards is a possibility.
13. Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
His numbers last year really weren't that great. Expect numbers a little better but nothing drastic.
14. Matt Cassel (KC)
Was Cassel a product of Belichick's sytem and 3 years of grooming in aformentioned system or is he the real deal? I'd say he'll produce somewhere inbetween how he started last year and how he ended.
Tier four
15. Eli Manning (NYG)
A very good real-life quarterback, much of his fantasy value is taken away by the Giants running game.
16. Chad Pennington (MIA)
The Dolphins really through the ball around the yard a lot more than I thought they would, granted it was a fair amount of dinking and dunking, but I expect them to focus on the ground game even more this year now that Ronnie Brown is a year-and-a-half removed from his torn ACL.
17. Joe Flacco (BAL)
Delaware's finest struggled early on (1 TD and 7 picks threw 5 games) but finished with 14 TDs and 12 INTs. Expect Flacco to continue to be a game manager this year, therefore not finishing with outrageous stats
18. Kyle Orton (CHI)
He was very good for part of the year then fell off a little after his injury. Potential sleeper here.
19. David Garrard (JAX)
2007 is looking like a fluke year. Don't expect much more than 3,300 yds and 16 TDs.
20. Matt Hasslebeck (SEA)
Many people will have him ranked higher, but I have a feeling he will be on the sidelines often due to injury. Draft him if you want, I'm staying away.
Tier five
21. Marc Bulger (STL)
Hasn't been the same since he got his contract. Don't be surprised if he loses his job before the season reaches its half-way point.
22. Shaun Hill (SF)
He hasn't officially been named starter, but once he is, he'll move up a handful of spots.
23. Brady Quinn (CLE)
See above
24. Trent Edwards (BUF)
Getting T.O helps, but bottom line is he won't ever be a big-time numbers QB.
25. Kerry Collins (TEN)
He's a game manager not a game changer, and his numbers will reflect that.
26. Sage Rosenfels (MIN)
All he'll be asked to do is not turn the ball over. He's just not going to put up numbers here.
27. Jason Campbell (WAS)
Clinton Portis will be options 1, 2, and 3 for this team, leaving little time for Campbell to put up stats.
Tier six
28. Daunte Culpepper (DET)
He's still the QB for the Lions-at least for now-and as long as he, or anyone else is there...they are fantasy irrelevant.
29. Kellen Clemens (NYJ)
Hopefully a year of tips from Favre will do him some good. I'm betting it doesn't though and he and the Jets stumble through the season with little more than nothing for a passing game.
30. Jake Delhomme (CAR)
He threw 5 INTs in his last game, a playoff game, and had an entire offseason to think about that. He won't be the 30th best QB in fantasy-16 to 20 is likely- I just don't want anything to do with him this year.
31. Luke McCown (TB)
Maybe the Bucs know something we don't-I'm not biting.
32. JaMarcus Russell (OAK)
He has a strong arm and...well he likes to be overweight. No thanks
Tier seven (backups)
33. Jeff Garcia (FA)
34. Seneca Wallace (SEA)
35. Drew Stanton (DET)
36. Vince Young (TEN)
37. Matt Leinart (ARI)
38. Alex Smith (SF)
39. Derek Anderson (CLE)
40. Tarvares Jackson (MIN)
41. Tyler Thigpen (KC)
42. Brett Ratliff (NYJ)
43. Matt Moore (CAR)
44. Brock Berlin (STL)
45. Chad Henne (MIA)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
