Due to either struggles or injuries, the following closers may be available in your leagues, they should turn it around soon so try picking them up.
Kerry Wood-CLE
He's been very un-Kerry Wood like this season, but that could just be because he is in a new league. He is far too talented to continue to struggle like this.
Jose Valverde-HOU
Valverde hasn't been great this year, and he is currently on the DL, but it won't surprise me if he ends the season with 30+ saves.
Brian Fuentes-LAA
Fuentes is in a similar boat to Kerry Wood, struggles mainly due to being in a new league. He does already have 8 saves so it may be harder to pry him away, but if you can, you could be rewarded with 50 or so saves seeing how the Angels like to use their closers.
Brad Lidge-PHI
When things are going bad for Brad as they are now, its beyond ugly, but when he is on, he's one of the games best. I think he will turn this around shortly and be back to being dominant.
Sunday, May 10, 2009
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Fantasy Football: Impact Rookies
Every year, a handful of rookies come from the digs of college football bust on to the NFL scene and contribute greatly to many a fantasy football championship. Some of these players are well known commodities like Adrian Peterson and Matt Ryan, while others like Marques Colston and Brandon Jacobs come out of nowhere to sweep us off our feet.
Below is a list of rookies that could have a significant impact
Quarterbacks (ranked from most likely success to least)
Matthew Stafford-Detroit Lions
Mark Sanchez- New York Jets
The only two quarterbacks that I see having any fantasy relevance this year are the big two, Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez. That being said, I don't see Sanchez getting into many games at all this year as I see Rex Ryan taking a more controlled approach to this rookie.
Stafford on the other hand may be forced into action early, maybe even week 6 or so, because the Lions have a little less than nothing to offer from the QB position.
Don't go too crazy though, wait until the later rounds to nab either of these guys or better yet, try to either sign them off the waiver wire when/if they are announced to start.
Runningbacks
Chris Wells (ARI)
Knowshon Moreno (DEN)
LeSean McCoy (PHI)
Donald Brown (IND)
Andre Brown (NYG)
James Davis (CLE)
Chris Wells will get every opportunity to produce, as he is easily the most talented runner on the Cardinals. He could get 300+ touches and double digit TDs. He's going around Round 9 or 10 in early mocks-which I think is far too low
Knowshon finds himself in a difficult situation, as he is playing for a coach that likes to pass a lot (who comes from a coach who is a fan of the Runningback by Committee), and is in a 6 or 7 deep backfield. He is their most talented back though so he should receive 50 or so percent of the carries. He is going in round 6 or 7 in early mocks, which would be solid value for him
With the recent news of yet another Westbrook surgery and the subtraction of Correll Buckhalter, McCoy's value is rising steadily. Any of the inevitable injuries to Westbrook and McCoy will be fantasy gold. Consider using a late round target on him.
Donald Brown is coming into a situation where he will split carries with Joseph Addai. I think Addai will bounce back and I also think Brown is a tad overrated so I'm projecting maybe 500 yards, tops.
Andre Brown will be taking over the "wind" part of the Giants running game which got Derrick Ward 1000 yards last year, so consider looking for him on the waiver wire later on in the season
James Davis is worth keeping an eye on as he steps into a very bad running "attack" in Cleveland, and therefore could manage to muster up a few carries.
Wide Receivers
Percy Harvin (MIN)
Michael Crabtree (SF)
Hakeem Nicks (NYG)
Deon Butler (SEA)
Jeremy Maclin (PHI)
Tiquan Underwood (JAX)
The rookie WR I feel will contribute most from day 1 is Percy Harvin from Florida. He won't net a ton of receptions- maybe 50 or 60, but he will receive a fair amount of carries in addition to those receptions. He's going between round 14 and 16 on average, which sounds about right to me.
Michael Crabtree down the line will be a dominating presence from the receiver position, that being said though, I don't like him this year due to him coming from an extreme spread option and the QB situation in San Fran isn't exactly great. People are expecting big things right away, but be smart, let someone else fall for it this year, then snatch him up the following year.
The Giants have many receivers on their roster that can have some fantasy relevance, but outside of Hakeem Nicks, they lack a big, strong receiver. He won't produce Pro Bowl numbers off the bat, but could contribute in a deep league.
Deon Butler is a small, quick receiver who I think could thrive in an offense like Seattle's, he could contribute a few solid games this year, but he probably shouldn't be drafted.
Jeremy Maclin was an intriguing pick for Philly, seeing as they have a similar young receiver in DeSean Jackson. I don't see Maclin contributing like Jackson did as a rookie though because he is so raw right now.
Call me crazy, but I think Tiquan Underwood from Rutgers could do some damage this year. He's a burner with a little height entering a very shallow receiving group in Jacksonville.
Tight Ends
Brandon Pettigrew (DET)
Cornelius Ingram (PHI)
While many people think Pettigrew will step in and be an immediate receiving impact, they should take into account the fact that Detriot's O-line is terrible and they will be in need of Pettigrew's blocking prowess to slow down the opponent's rush on pass plays. He still could manage 40 or 50 catches though, which could be worthy of a late round selection.
Cornelius Ingram dropped in the draft because of concerns over his ACL, but he is now in a TE friendly scheme in Philly and should reap the benefits of that. 50 receptions isn't entirely out of the question, although he does have some competion in Brent Celek.
Below is a list of rookies that could have a significant impact
Quarterbacks (ranked from most likely success to least)
Matthew Stafford-Detroit Lions
Mark Sanchez- New York Jets
The only two quarterbacks that I see having any fantasy relevance this year are the big two, Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez. That being said, I don't see Sanchez getting into many games at all this year as I see Rex Ryan taking a more controlled approach to this rookie.
Stafford on the other hand may be forced into action early, maybe even week 6 or so, because the Lions have a little less than nothing to offer from the QB position.
Don't go too crazy though, wait until the later rounds to nab either of these guys or better yet, try to either sign them off the waiver wire when/if they are announced to start.
Runningbacks
Chris Wells (ARI)
Knowshon Moreno (DEN)
LeSean McCoy (PHI)
Donald Brown (IND)
Andre Brown (NYG)
James Davis (CLE)
Chris Wells will get every opportunity to produce, as he is easily the most talented runner on the Cardinals. He could get 300+ touches and double digit TDs. He's going around Round 9 or 10 in early mocks-which I think is far too low
Knowshon finds himself in a difficult situation, as he is playing for a coach that likes to pass a lot (who comes from a coach who is a fan of the Runningback by Committee), and is in a 6 or 7 deep backfield. He is their most talented back though so he should receive 50 or so percent of the carries. He is going in round 6 or 7 in early mocks, which would be solid value for him
With the recent news of yet another Westbrook surgery and the subtraction of Correll Buckhalter, McCoy's value is rising steadily. Any of the inevitable injuries to Westbrook and McCoy will be fantasy gold. Consider using a late round target on him.
Donald Brown is coming into a situation where he will split carries with Joseph Addai. I think Addai will bounce back and I also think Brown is a tad overrated so I'm projecting maybe 500 yards, tops.
Andre Brown will be taking over the "wind" part of the Giants running game which got Derrick Ward 1000 yards last year, so consider looking for him on the waiver wire later on in the season
James Davis is worth keeping an eye on as he steps into a very bad running "attack" in Cleveland, and therefore could manage to muster up a few carries.
Wide Receivers
Percy Harvin (MIN)
Michael Crabtree (SF)
Hakeem Nicks (NYG)
Deon Butler (SEA)
Jeremy Maclin (PHI)
Tiquan Underwood (JAX)
The rookie WR I feel will contribute most from day 1 is Percy Harvin from Florida. He won't net a ton of receptions- maybe 50 or 60, but he will receive a fair amount of carries in addition to those receptions. He's going between round 14 and 16 on average, which sounds about right to me.
Michael Crabtree down the line will be a dominating presence from the receiver position, that being said though, I don't like him this year due to him coming from an extreme spread option and the QB situation in San Fran isn't exactly great. People are expecting big things right away, but be smart, let someone else fall for it this year, then snatch him up the following year.
The Giants have many receivers on their roster that can have some fantasy relevance, but outside of Hakeem Nicks, they lack a big, strong receiver. He won't produce Pro Bowl numbers off the bat, but could contribute in a deep league.
Deon Butler is a small, quick receiver who I think could thrive in an offense like Seattle's, he could contribute a few solid games this year, but he probably shouldn't be drafted.
Jeremy Maclin was an intriguing pick for Philly, seeing as they have a similar young receiver in DeSean Jackson. I don't see Maclin contributing like Jackson did as a rookie though because he is so raw right now.
Call me crazy, but I think Tiquan Underwood from Rutgers could do some damage this year. He's a burner with a little height entering a very shallow receiving group in Jacksonville.
Tight Ends
Brandon Pettigrew (DET)
Cornelius Ingram (PHI)
While many people think Pettigrew will step in and be an immediate receiving impact, they should take into account the fact that Detriot's O-line is terrible and they will be in need of Pettigrew's blocking prowess to slow down the opponent's rush on pass plays. He still could manage 40 or 50 catches though, which could be worthy of a late round selection.
Cornelius Ingram dropped in the draft because of concerns over his ACL, but he is now in a TE friendly scheme in Philly and should reap the benefits of that. 50 receptions isn't entirely out of the question, although he does have some competion in Brent Celek.
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Players I'm trying to get at a discount
Melvin Mora-3B
Over the last 5 or 6 years (minus 2007), he has been a very consistent contributor, averaging about a .285 BA, 20 or so home runs and about 90 RBIs. He's struggled both at the plate and with injuries early on, but I think he'll make a solid comeback and have a nice 2nd half.
Howie Kendrick-2B
Already this season he's been wildly inconsistent, being drafted with promise, struggling out of the gate, then hitting everything that gets thrown his way, to now once again struggling. I'll be more than willing to trade for one of the best young hitters in baseball at a discount.
Valdimir Guerrero-OF/DH
You want to know what I like hearing more than almost anything else? When experts on ESPN say a star is done because of a below average 25 at bats and an injury. People freak out and are willing to take him for next to nothing. Vlad can still hit for power (10.67 AB/HR) and average (never had a BA under .300 his entire career) and while he may have started out slow, if you can grab him cheap, you'll be glad you did.
Lance Berkman-1B
He has gotten off to a painfully slow start, but nothing about his history says that he will not turn this around. If you can get him for something less than a 4th round talent, then fire away on that deal.
Matt Holliday-OF
I know that several people thought he would struggle away from Coors Field, and he has so far, but he's just too talented a hitter to not turn it around. He hit a home run yesterday so your chance at getting him cheap may be coming to an end.
Kelly Johnson-2B
Second Base isn't a very deep position, so many of you are probably hurting here. Johnson has been one of the best 2B in all of baseball the last few years so don't let an early season struggle keep you from reaping the benefits of what he could give you.
Brian McCann-C
Catcher is never a deep position, and if you can grab a top tier guy when he is hurt, underperforming, or both, then you better jump on it!
Prince Fielder-1B
He's starting to get a reputation as a slow starter since both this year and last he's come out of the gate with little or no power. Thats good for you though, as you could probably pick him up fairly cheap right now (for a star that is). Act quick though because he is slowly turning it on.
Derek Lee-1B
He's been downright awful this year, but he is a very talented player who should turn it around. The worst is definitely behind him, so picking him up wouldn't be a bad idea.
Geovany Soto-C
People may be wary of him being in the "Sophomore Slump". Me? I think its just taking his swing a little bit to get right. He is in a very good lineup and is a very good hitter himself so look for this to turn around shortly.
Chris Young-OF
He is too young and too talented to keep this pace up. Expect him to finish with 20 home runs and 20+ steals, albeit with a terrible batting average.
Stephen Drew-SS
He had a very good second half last year after a poor first half. The same will happen this year too.
Russell Martin-C
He's started out painfully bad, but he is making more solid contact now and is being more effective on the basepaths. Another catcher I wouldn't mind going for.
Stay tuned tomorrow for some more buy low canidates.
Over the last 5 or 6 years (minus 2007), he has been a very consistent contributor, averaging about a .285 BA, 20 or so home runs and about 90 RBIs. He's struggled both at the plate and with injuries early on, but I think he'll make a solid comeback and have a nice 2nd half.
Howie Kendrick-2B
Already this season he's been wildly inconsistent, being drafted with promise, struggling out of the gate, then hitting everything that gets thrown his way, to now once again struggling. I'll be more than willing to trade for one of the best young hitters in baseball at a discount.
Valdimir Guerrero-OF/DH
You want to know what I like hearing more than almost anything else? When experts on ESPN say a star is done because of a below average 25 at bats and an injury. People freak out and are willing to take him for next to nothing. Vlad can still hit for power (10.67 AB/HR) and average (never had a BA under .300 his entire career) and while he may have started out slow, if you can grab him cheap, you'll be glad you did.
Lance Berkman-1B
He has gotten off to a painfully slow start, but nothing about his history says that he will not turn this around. If you can get him for something less than a 4th round talent, then fire away on that deal.
Matt Holliday-OF
I know that several people thought he would struggle away from Coors Field, and he has so far, but he's just too talented a hitter to not turn it around. He hit a home run yesterday so your chance at getting him cheap may be coming to an end.
Kelly Johnson-2B
Second Base isn't a very deep position, so many of you are probably hurting here. Johnson has been one of the best 2B in all of baseball the last few years so don't let an early season struggle keep you from reaping the benefits of what he could give you.
Brian McCann-C
Catcher is never a deep position, and if you can grab a top tier guy when he is hurt, underperforming, or both, then you better jump on it!
Prince Fielder-1B
He's starting to get a reputation as a slow starter since both this year and last he's come out of the gate with little or no power. Thats good for you though, as you could probably pick him up fairly cheap right now (for a star that is). Act quick though because he is slowly turning it on.
Derek Lee-1B
He's been downright awful this year, but he is a very talented player who should turn it around. The worst is definitely behind him, so picking him up wouldn't be a bad idea.
Geovany Soto-C
People may be wary of him being in the "Sophomore Slump". Me? I think its just taking his swing a little bit to get right. He is in a very good lineup and is a very good hitter himself so look for this to turn around shortly.
Chris Young-OF
He is too young and too talented to keep this pace up. Expect him to finish with 20 home runs and 20+ steals, albeit with a terrible batting average.
Stephen Drew-SS
He had a very good second half last year after a poor first half. The same will happen this year too.
Russell Martin-C
He's started out painfully bad, but he is making more solid contact now and is being more effective on the basepaths. Another catcher I wouldn't mind going for.
Stay tuned tomorrow for some more buy low canidates.
BABIP
For people who are looking for some way to project near future fantasy success of players, BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is a huge stat to keep an eye on as many of you probably know. However, if you dig a little deeper into the BABIP stat, breaking it down as much as possible and studying previous tendencies, you will be even better off.
This page here is an amazing compilation of varying BABIP stats for both pitchers and hitters, such as BABIP on groundballs, line drives, fly balls, and overall. It also includes the respective players stats in those categories for last season so you can see how the player is doing to his last years numbers and gives you the HR/Fly Ball %.
So if you really want a leg up on the competition, check out that link (by Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN.com) and start making some moves based on those stats!
This page here is an amazing compilation of varying BABIP stats for both pitchers and hitters, such as BABIP on groundballs, line drives, fly balls, and overall. It also includes the respective players stats in those categories for last season so you can see how the player is doing to his last years numbers and gives you the HR/Fly Ball %.
So if you really want a leg up on the competition, check out that link (by Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN.com) and start making some moves based on those stats!
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Don't listen to it!
Earlier today, I was on ESPN.com's fantasy baseball site reading up on some stuff when I came across an Eric Karabell page. Now normally I am a big fan of his, but the page I read today I really have to disagree with.
He was writing about how you have to stay with your stars in the early season no matter what, meaning that even if your stars are struggling, keep them in your starting lineup so you dont miss their breakout game. He goes on to write about how back in 2003, an opposing manager in his league for the first time benched the struggling Shawn Green when he had his 4 home run, 7 RBI game and Karabell ended up beating that owner and winning the league by 3 RBIs.
It sounds like a smart move, but don't don't DON'T fall for it. If that owner would have benched Green earlier in the year, he could have picked up 8 to 10 more RBIs by making a shrewd waiver wire pickup, then starting Green once he got back in to the swing of things. If he would have followed this strategty, he would have won his league by 5 to 7 RBIs instead of finishing 2nd.
I am currently doing this in all of my leagues, sitting big name players such as Mark Teixeira, Jimmy Rollins, BJ Upton, and Brandon Phillips in exchange for lesser name players who are producing way out of their mind right now. Once my stars turn it around, they will definitely be back in my lineup, but I find it foolish to stick to your guns just because of their names.
Speaking of that...I may be posting soon about the importance of not following names in fantasy sports some time soon...
He was writing about how you have to stay with your stars in the early season no matter what, meaning that even if your stars are struggling, keep them in your starting lineup so you dont miss their breakout game. He goes on to write about how back in 2003, an opposing manager in his league for the first time benched the struggling Shawn Green when he had his 4 home run, 7 RBI game and Karabell ended up beating that owner and winning the league by 3 RBIs.
It sounds like a smart move, but don't don't DON'T fall for it. If that owner would have benched Green earlier in the year, he could have picked up 8 to 10 more RBIs by making a shrewd waiver wire pickup, then starting Green once he got back in to the swing of things. If he would have followed this strategty, he would have won his league by 5 to 7 RBIs instead of finishing 2nd.
I am currently doing this in all of my leagues, sitting big name players such as Mark Teixeira, Jimmy Rollins, BJ Upton, and Brandon Phillips in exchange for lesser name players who are producing way out of their mind right now. Once my stars turn it around, they will definitely be back in my lineup, but I find it foolish to stick to your guns just because of their names.
Speaking of that...I may be posting soon about the importance of not following names in fantasy sports some time soon...
Fantasy Baseball Advice:
Hot starters you should be trying to sell high on.
Michael Young-3B/SS:
Yes, I know he plays at 2 fairly positions and has been mashing to start the year (7 home runs, .324 batting average) but you can't expect an aging player (32 years old) who has hit a combined 21 home runs the last two seasons with a declining batting average to keep this up. A .300 to .315 average is likely, but you'll soon be seeing the home runs come few and far between. Try trading him for a Jimmy Rollins type or package him for the also struggling Jose Reyes.
Orlando Hudson-2B:
A 31 year old, career .284 hitter who is currently hitting .336? I'm not sold. Sure Hudson does have enough speed to reach 15 or 20 steals, but you'll soon see his average level off to at least .295 and he'll max out at 10 or 12 homers. Sell him high while you still can.
Nick Swisher-1B/OF:
He plays the two deepest batting positions there are which is a large knock on him already. I'm not saying its dumb to own him right now, he's mashing and you want as many players who are currently mashing on you team as possible. But he's a career .246 hitter who is hitting at a .300 clip right now, so obviously thats going to come down. Also, his homers won't keep on coming like they are right now. The Yankees are fairly deep in the outfield, at first base, and at DH, and Swisher's glove isn't worthy of extra playing time, not by a long shot. So sell him while he's still hitting so you can get a return for a guy who more than likely will be platooning within a month or two.
Kosuke Fukodome-OF:
I've said this before, Fukudome will be a monster first half player again this year as he was last year, but will fall off in the 2nd half. As bad? Probably not, last year was just terrible after the break, but he won't keep this up for a full season. Trade at the first sign of trouble.
Michael Young-3B/SS:
Yes, I know he plays at 2 fairly positions and has been mashing to start the year (7 home runs, .324 batting average) but you can't expect an aging player (32 years old) who has hit a combined 21 home runs the last two seasons with a declining batting average to keep this up. A .300 to .315 average is likely, but you'll soon be seeing the home runs come few and far between. Try trading him for a Jimmy Rollins type or package him for the also struggling Jose Reyes.
Orlando Hudson-2B:
A 31 year old, career .284 hitter who is currently hitting .336? I'm not sold. Sure Hudson does have enough speed to reach 15 or 20 steals, but you'll soon see his average level off to at least .295 and he'll max out at 10 or 12 homers. Sell him high while you still can.
Nick Swisher-1B/OF:
He plays the two deepest batting positions there are which is a large knock on him already. I'm not saying its dumb to own him right now, he's mashing and you want as many players who are currently mashing on you team as possible. But he's a career .246 hitter who is hitting at a .300 clip right now, so obviously thats going to come down. Also, his homers won't keep on coming like they are right now. The Yankees are fairly deep in the outfield, at first base, and at DH, and Swisher's glove isn't worthy of extra playing time, not by a long shot. So sell him while he's still hitting so you can get a return for a guy who more than likely will be platooning within a month or two.
Kosuke Fukodome-OF:
I've said this before, Fukudome will be a monster first half player again this year as he was last year, but will fall off in the 2nd half. As bad? Probably not, last year was just terrible after the break, but he won't keep this up for a full season. Trade at the first sign of trouble.
Monday, May 4, 2009
Fantasy Baseball Tip
I want you to think back on your last fantasy baseball draft, and think about when you selected your first and second relief pitchers. Hopefully, you didn't draft them earlier than the 12th round, and if you did, hopefully you've learned your lesson. If you haven't, I'm here to teach you a little something about the art of the fantasy closer pickup.
Out of the 52 Major Leaguers who have a save to their name, guess how many have over 15 innings pitched? The answer is, are you ready? One. One pitcher, Roman Troncoso. The majority of the players remaining have somewhere between 7 and 11 innings pitched. If you're in a head-to-head league, thats bad, but in a rotisserie league, that can be terrifying. A lot of people excuse there nonsensical drafting of a closer so earlier by saying it will greatly help their K's, WHIP, and ERA. In reality though, it won't. If a player will only get you 50 to 80 innings, the percentage of his innings to the whole won't make a signifigant difference, so neither will any of his other stats (aside from saves of course). You just shouldn't draft a player so earlier if he will only truly benefit you in 1 category and wont harm (or really help) you at all in the others. Instead, get players that can help you in 3 of 5 batting categories or piching categories.
Another reason to not draft a pitcher high is because you can always always ALWAYS find saves later, whether that later is a few rounds later in the draft, via free agency, or both. Example? The player with the most saves, Heath Bell (8 saves, 0.00 ERA, 9 Ks), went undrafted in several leagues and always went very late in the others. Same goes for Frank Francisco (7 saves, 0.00 ERA, 10 Ks) and Chad Qualls (6 saves, 1.80 ERA, 14 Ks). Compare that to players who went between 10 and 18 rounds before them like Jonathan Papelbon (6 saves, 1.74 ERA, 10 Ks), Kerry Wood (5 saves, 7.20 ERA, 16 Ks), and Brad Lidge (4 saves, 6.52 ERA, 12 Ks), and you'll find that there really is no advantage to taking closers earlier rather than later.
Out of the 52 Major Leaguers who have a save to their name, guess how many have over 15 innings pitched? The answer is, are you ready? One. One pitcher, Roman Troncoso. The majority of the players remaining have somewhere between 7 and 11 innings pitched. If you're in a head-to-head league, thats bad, but in a rotisserie league, that can be terrifying. A lot of people excuse there nonsensical drafting of a closer so earlier by saying it will greatly help their K's, WHIP, and ERA. In reality though, it won't. If a player will only get you 50 to 80 innings, the percentage of his innings to the whole won't make a signifigant difference, so neither will any of his other stats (aside from saves of course). You just shouldn't draft a player so earlier if he will only truly benefit you in 1 category and wont harm (or really help) you at all in the others. Instead, get players that can help you in 3 of 5 batting categories or piching categories.
Another reason to not draft a pitcher high is because you can always always ALWAYS find saves later, whether that later is a few rounds later in the draft, via free agency, or both. Example? The player with the most saves, Heath Bell (8 saves, 0.00 ERA, 9 Ks), went undrafted in several leagues and always went very late in the others. Same goes for Frank Francisco (7 saves, 0.00 ERA, 10 Ks) and Chad Qualls (6 saves, 1.80 ERA, 14 Ks). Compare that to players who went between 10 and 18 rounds before them like Jonathan Papelbon (6 saves, 1.74 ERA, 10 Ks), Kerry Wood (5 saves, 7.20 ERA, 16 Ks), and Brad Lidge (4 saves, 6.52 ERA, 12 Ks), and you'll find that there really is no advantage to taking closers earlier rather than later.
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Fantasy Baseball How To
Trade for a top prospect
Trading for a big name prospect might be the the most difficult thing to do in fantasy baseball. You have to think through how you value the prospect, how the other owner values the prospect and depending on how your trade rules are set up, how your fellow league-mates view that prospect (because they can veto trades and such).
Normally the person who has the top prospect will value him a little higher than everyone else (maybe a lot more)-I mean, they did pick that player before anyone else, so seeing eye-to-eye on trade value could be difficult. The best thing you could do would be to talk to the other manager, see his value, and try to temper his love for said prospect by using obscure stats and skewing the advice of fantasy experts to your advantage-like saying that you heard Peter Gammons say they were going to keep this player down til at least July or something. Is this unethical? It just may be, but if you can land a potential top player for a lot less than you would have had to give up, then its better for you.
After you have seen the other manager's expectations of this player and have tried knocking those expectations down, begin talks with him about trade offers. Offer him players that you value slightly less than the prospect, sending messages with reassuring points about the player you are giving up.
You may have to do some tinkering with the player(s) you offer, maybe even do a package deal, whatever the case is though, don't go over your expected value of your potential newcomer. Don't fall in to the trap that many fantasy sports managers fall in to-getting their sights set on a player and doing whatever it takes to get the player, regardless of whether or not it hurts your team.
Hopefully following these tips can help you land a Wieters or a Price for a much lower...price (sorry, had to) and also can net you a few steals in trades that don't involve prospects.
Trading for a big name prospect might be the the most difficult thing to do in fantasy baseball. You have to think through how you value the prospect, how the other owner values the prospect and depending on how your trade rules are set up, how your fellow league-mates view that prospect (because they can veto trades and such).
Normally the person who has the top prospect will value him a little higher than everyone else (maybe a lot more)-I mean, they did pick that player before anyone else, so seeing eye-to-eye on trade value could be difficult. The best thing you could do would be to talk to the other manager, see his value, and try to temper his love for said prospect by using obscure stats and skewing the advice of fantasy experts to your advantage-like saying that you heard Peter Gammons say they were going to keep this player down til at least July or something. Is this unethical? It just may be, but if you can land a potential top player for a lot less than you would have had to give up, then its better for you.
After you have seen the other manager's expectations of this player and have tried knocking those expectations down, begin talks with him about trade offers. Offer him players that you value slightly less than the prospect, sending messages with reassuring points about the player you are giving up.
You may have to do some tinkering with the player(s) you offer, maybe even do a package deal, whatever the case is though, don't go over your expected value of your potential newcomer. Don't fall in to the trap that many fantasy sports managers fall in to-getting their sights set on a player and doing whatever it takes to get the player, regardless of whether or not it hurts your team.
Hopefully following these tips can help you land a Wieters or a Price for a much lower...price (sorry, had to) and also can net you a few steals in trades that don't involve prospects.
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Fantasy Baseball How To
Know who, when, and how to pick up a prospect.
Everybody wants to be that guy. You know, the one who takes the risk on the soon-to-be-called-up guy, then have him turn to gold and he leads you to a championship. But in reality, the chance of this success happening more often than not leads to the destruction of a good team rather than the step up of good to great for a team.
So how exactly can you know when to pick up a player either still in the minors or who has just been called up? Well, there is no easy way really, if you truly want to find a unique sleeper who can help you out (think Blake DeWitt last season) you have to do some research.
First, you have to know which players are about to be called up or players who are dominating in the minors. Sites like http://www.scoutingbook.com/prospects/, http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/top-100-fantasy-baseball-prospects-5-1-09/ , and to see prospects stats, go to http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/. Checking these sites and many others will greatly increase your knowledge of who will be coming up when and how they should do (roughly) once they arrive.
After you learn when someone will be coming up and you have a fair barometer of how you think they'll perform, its time to get them on your team-maybe. If you have a player or two on currently on your team that you think won't produce much at all (less than the player you want to pick up) then obviously pull the trigger, but if you feel the player you want and the one you have will do roughly the same, keep the player you have because he is a much surer thing than a player with no big league experience.
Trading for prospects though is an entirely different monster though, so i will tackle that in a new post.
Also, check out my NFL blog at nflep.blogspot.com.
Everybody wants to be that guy. You know, the one who takes the risk on the soon-to-be-called-up guy, then have him turn to gold and he leads you to a championship. But in reality, the chance of this success happening more often than not leads to the destruction of a good team rather than the step up of good to great for a team.
So how exactly can you know when to pick up a player either still in the minors or who has just been called up? Well, there is no easy way really, if you truly want to find a unique sleeper who can help you out (think Blake DeWitt last season) you have to do some research.
First, you have to know which players are about to be called up or players who are dominating in the minors. Sites like http://www.scoutingbook.com/prospects/, http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/top-100-fantasy-baseball-prospects-5-1-09/ , and to see prospects stats, go to http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/. Checking these sites and many others will greatly increase your knowledge of who will be coming up when and how they should do (roughly) once they arrive.
After you learn when someone will be coming up and you have a fair barometer of how you think they'll perform, its time to get them on your team-maybe. If you have a player or two on currently on your team that you think won't produce much at all (less than the player you want to pick up) then obviously pull the trigger, but if you feel the player you want and the one you have will do roughly the same, keep the player you have because he is a much surer thing than a player with no big league experience.
Trading for prospects though is an entirely different monster though, so i will tackle that in a new post.
Also, check out my NFL blog at nflep.blogspot.com.
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