Fantasy Baseball: Closers

Due to either struggles or injuries, the following closers may be available in your leagues, they should turn it around soon so try picking them up.

Kerry Wood-CLE
He's been very un-Kerry Wood like this season, but that could just be because he is in a new league. He is far too talented to continue to struggle like this.

Jose Valverde-HOU
Valverde hasn't been great this year, and he is currently on the DL, but it won't surprise me if he ends the season with 30+ saves.

Brian Fuentes-LAA
Fuentes is in a similar boat to Kerry Wood, struggles mainly due to being in a new league. He does already have 8 saves so it may be harder to pry him away, but if you can, you could be rewarded with 50 or so saves seeing how the Angels like to use their closers.

Brad Lidge-PHI
When things are going bad for Brad as they are now, its beyond ugly, but when he is on, he's one of the games best. I think he will turn this around shortly and be back to being dominant.

Players I'm trying to get at a discount

Melvin Mora-3B
Over the last 5 or 6 years (minus 2007), he has been a very consistent contributor, averaging about a .285 BA, 20 or so home runs and about 90 RBIs. He's struggled both at the plate and with injuries early on, but I think he'll make a solid comeback and have a nice 2nd half.

Howie Kendrick-2B
Already this season he's been wildly inconsistent, being drafted with promise, struggling out of the gate, then hitting everything that gets thrown his way, to now once again struggling. I'll be more than willing to trade for one of the best young hitters in baseball at a discount.

Valdimir Guerrero-OF/DH
You want to know what I like hearing more than almost anything else? When experts on ESPN say a star is done because of a below average 25 at bats and an injury. People freak out and are willing to take him for next to nothing. Vlad can still hit for power (10.67 AB/HR) and average (never had a BA under .300 his entire career) and while he may have started out slow, if you can grab him cheap, you'll be glad you did.

Lance Berkman-1B
He has gotten off to a painfully slow start, but nothing about his history says that he will not turn this around. If you can get him for something less than a 4th round talent, then fire away on that deal.

Matt Holliday-OF
I know that several people thought he would struggle away from Coors Field, and he has so far, but he's just too talented a hitter to not turn it around. He hit a home run yesterday so your chance at getting him cheap may be coming to an end.

Kelly Johnson-2B
Second Base isn't a very deep position, so many of you are probably hurting here. Johnson has been one of the best 2B in all of baseball the last few years so don't let an early season struggle keep you from reaping the benefits of what he could give you.

Brian McCann-C
Catcher is never a deep position, and if you can grab a top tier guy when he is hurt, underperforming, or both, then you better jump on it!

Prince Fielder-1B
He's starting to get a reputation as a slow starter since both this year and last he's come out of the gate with little or no power. Thats good for you though, as you could probably pick him up fairly cheap right now (for a star that is). Act quick though because he is slowly turning it on.

Derek Lee-1B
He's been downright awful this year, but he is a very talented player who should turn it around. The worst is definitely behind him, so picking him up wouldn't be a bad idea.

Geovany Soto-C
People may be wary of him being in the "Sophomore Slump". Me? I think its just taking his swing a little bit to get right. He is in a very good lineup and is a very good hitter himself so look for this to turn around shortly.

Chris Young-OF
He is too young and too talented to keep this pace up. Expect him to finish with 20 home runs and 20+ steals, albeit with a terrible batting average.

Stephen Drew-SS
He had a very good second half last year after a poor first half. The same will happen this year too.

Russell Martin-C
He's started out painfully bad, but he is making more solid contact now and is being more effective on the basepaths. Another catcher I wouldn't mind going for.

Stay tuned tomorrow for some more buy low canidates.

BABIP

For people who are looking for some way to project near future fantasy success of players, BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is a huge stat to keep an eye on as many of you probably know. However, if you dig a little deeper into the BABIP stat, breaking it down as much as possible and studying previous tendencies, you will be even better off.

This page here is an amazing compilation of varying BABIP stats for both pitchers and hitters, such as BABIP on groundballs, line drives, fly balls, and overall. It also includes the respective players stats in those categories for last season so you can see how the player is doing to his last years numbers and gives you the HR/Fly Ball %.

So if you really want a leg up on the competition, check out that link (by Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN.com) and start making some moves based on those stats!

Don't listen to it!

Earlier today, I was on ESPN.com's fantasy baseball site reading up on some stuff when I came across an Eric Karabell page. Now normally I am a big fan of his, but the page I read today I really have to disagree with.

He was writing about how you have to stay with your stars in the early season no matter what, meaning that even if your stars are struggling, keep them in your starting lineup so you dont miss their breakout game. He goes on to write about how back in 2003, an opposing manager in his league for the first time benched the struggling Shawn Green when he had his 4 home run, 7 RBI game and Karabell ended up beating that owner and winning the league by 3 RBIs.

It sounds like a smart move, but don't don't DON'T fall for it. If that owner would have benched Green earlier in the year, he could have picked up 8 to 10 more RBIs by making a shrewd waiver wire pickup, then starting Green once he got back in to the swing of things. If he would have followed this strategty, he would have won his league by 5 to 7 RBIs instead of finishing 2nd.

I am currently doing this in all of my leagues, sitting big name players such as Mark Teixeira, Jimmy Rollins, BJ Upton, and Brandon Phillips in exchange for lesser name players who are producing way out of their mind right now. Once my stars turn it around, they will definitely be back in my lineup, but I find it foolish to stick to your guns just because of their names.

Speaking of that...I may be posting soon about the importance of not following names in fantasy sports some time soon...

Fantasy Baseball Advice:

Hot starters you should be trying to sell high on.

Michael Young-3B/SS:
Yes, I know he plays at 2 fairly positions and has been mashing to start the year (7 home runs, .324 batting average) but you can't expect an aging player (32 years old) who has hit a combined 21 home runs the last two seasons with a declining batting average to keep this up. A .300 to .315 average is likely, but you'll soon be seeing the home runs come few and far between. Try trading him for a Jimmy Rollins type or package him for the also struggling Jose Reyes.

Orlando Hudson-2B:
A 31 year old, career .284 hitter who is currently hitting .336? I'm not sold. Sure Hudson does have enough speed to reach 15 or 20 steals, but you'll soon see his average level off to at least .295 and he'll max out at 10 or 12 homers. Sell him high while you still can.

Nick Swisher-1B/OF:
He plays the two deepest batting positions there are which is a large knock on him already. I'm not saying its dumb to own him right now, he's mashing and you want as many players who are currently mashing on you team as possible. But he's a career .246 hitter who is hitting at a .300 clip right now, so obviously thats going to come down. Also, his homers won't keep on coming like they are right now. The Yankees are fairly deep in the outfield, at first base, and at DH, and Swisher's glove isn't worthy of extra playing time, not by a long shot. So sell him while he's still hitting so you can get a return for a guy who more than likely will be platooning within a month or two.

Kosuke Fukodome-OF:
I've said this before, Fukudome will be a monster first half player again this year as he was last year, but will fall off in the 2nd half. As bad? Probably not, last year was just terrible after the break, but he won't keep this up for a full season. Trade at the first sign of trouble.

Fantasy Baseball Tip

I want you to think back on your last fantasy baseball draft, and think about when you selected your first and second relief pitchers. Hopefully, you didn't draft them earlier than the 12th round, and if you did, hopefully you've learned your lesson. If you haven't, I'm here to teach you a little something about the art of the fantasy closer pickup.

Out of the 52 Major Leaguers who have a save to their name, guess how many have over 15 innings pitched? The answer is, are you ready? One. One pitcher, Roman Troncoso. The majority of the players remaining have somewhere between 7 and 11 innings pitched. If you're in a head-to-head league, thats bad, but in a rotisserie league, that can be terrifying. A lot of people excuse there nonsensical drafting of a closer so earlier by saying it will greatly help their K's, WHIP, and ERA. In reality though, it won't. If a player will only get you 50 to 80 innings, the percentage of his innings to the whole won't make a signifigant difference, so neither will any of his other stats (aside from saves of course). You just shouldn't draft a player so earlier if he will only truly benefit you in 1 category and wont harm (or really help) you at all in the others. Instead, get players that can help you in 3 of 5 batting categories or piching categories.

Another reason to not draft a pitcher high is because you can always always ALWAYS find saves later, whether that later is a few rounds later in the draft, via free agency, or both. Example? The player with the most saves, Heath Bell (8 saves, 0.00 ERA, 9 Ks), went undrafted in several leagues and always went very late in the others. Same goes for Frank Francisco (7 saves, 0.00 ERA, 10 Ks) and Chad Qualls (6 saves, 1.80 ERA, 14 Ks). Compare that to players who went between 10 and 18 rounds before them like Jonathan Papelbon (6 saves, 1.74 ERA, 10 Ks), Kerry Wood (5 saves, 7.20 ERA, 16 Ks), and Brad Lidge (4 saves, 6.52 ERA, 12 Ks), and you'll find that there really is no advantage to taking closers earlier rather than later.

Fantasy Baseball How To

Trade for a top prospect

Trading for a big name prospect might be the the most difficult thing to do in fantasy baseball. You have to think through how you value the prospect, how the other owner values the prospect and depending on how your trade rules are set up, how your fellow league-mates view that prospect (because they can veto trades and such).

Normally the person who has the top prospect will value him a little higher than everyone else (maybe a lot more)-I mean, they did pick that player before anyone else, so seeing eye-to-eye on trade value could be difficult. The best thing you could do would be to talk to the other manager, see his value, and try to temper his love for said prospect by using obscure stats and skewing the advice of fantasy experts to your advantage-like saying that you heard Peter Gammons say they were going to keep this player down til at least July or something. Is this unethical? It just may be, but if you can land a potential top player for a lot less than you would have had to give up, then its better for you.

After you have seen the other manager's expectations of this player and have tried knocking those expectations down, begin talks with him about trade offers. Offer him players that you value slightly less than the prospect, sending messages with reassuring points about the player you are giving up.

You may have to do some tinkering with the player(s) you offer, maybe even do a package deal, whatever the case is though, don't go over your expected value of your potential newcomer. Don't fall in to the trap that many fantasy sports managers fall in to-getting their sights set on a player and doing whatever it takes to get the player, regardless of whether or not it hurts your team.

Hopefully following these tips can help you land a Wieters or a Price for a much lower...price (sorry, had to) and also can net you a few steals in trades that don't involve prospects.

Fantasy Baseball How To

Know who, when, and how to pick up a prospect.

Everybody wants to be that guy. You know, the one who takes the risk on the soon-to-be-called-up guy, then have him turn to gold and he leads you to a championship. But in reality, the chance of this success happening more often than not leads to the destruction of a good team rather than the step up of good to great for a team.

So how exactly can you know when to pick up a player either still in the minors or who has just been called up? Well, there is no easy way really, if you truly want to find a unique sleeper who can help you out (think Blake DeWitt last season) you have to do some research.

First, you have to know which players are about to be called up or players who are dominating in the minors. Sites like http://www.scoutingbook.com/prospects/, http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/top-100-fantasy-baseball-prospects-5-1-09/ , and to see prospects stats, go to http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/. Checking these sites and many others will greatly increase your knowledge of who will be coming up when and how they should do (roughly) once they arrive.

After you learn when someone will be coming up and you have a fair barometer of how you think they'll perform, its time to get them on your team-maybe. If you have a player or two on currently on your team that you think won't produce much at all (less than the player you want to pick up) then obviously pull the trigger, but if you feel the player you want and the one you have will do roughly the same, keep the player you have because he is a much surer thing than a player with no big league experience.

Trading for prospects though is an entirely different monster though, so i will tackle that in a new post.

Also, check out my NFL blog at nflep.blogspot.com.

Fantasy Baseball How To:

Effectively improve your team via the waiver wire.

By this point in the season, you've probably come pretty close to recognizing what all your team is strong at, and what all categories they could use some help with.
If you aren't really sure, take a look at your accumulated stats (there should be a link for this somewhere on the league's homepage) and see what categories you need help with-I prefer writing down each category that I feel I need help with.

With this information at hand, you should start to focus on stats on the waiver wire instead of big names and/or numbers that you are already in good shape at.
For example, lets say that you are 2nd in your league in home runs but only ninth in stolen bases, but some one has just dropped Chris Davis whom you have had your eye on since before the draft. Obviously you would be tempted to pick him up, but instead try to find an unheralded speed guy. You can still make room to put Chris Davis on your team, but finding a speed guy needs to be your top priority.

Pitching, on the other hand, can be a little more complicated though, depending on your league's scoring settings.
If your league has a category for Innings Pitched along with all the other 'normal' stat categories, it may be wise to have an extra starter on your team in place of a reliever, but don't go overboard with this. Don't sacrifice your ERA, WHIP, Saves, and Walks just to try and gain an advantage in K's, Wins, and Innings. If you'll do the math here, you're hurting your team by doing so.
Slowly throughout the year, try and pick up starters who flying under the radar but performing very well and you may be able to pick up a clean sweep in pitching categories once in a while.

Fantasy Baseball team updates

This week...definitely wasn't my finest week ever. Almost all of my teams lost ground in the standings. Here's the recap of Week 2.

Team 1:
I started out the week with high hopes. I was only 1/2 game out of first place and was playing a team that didn't win a single category the previous week. All of my hitters decided to pick this week to not do jack squat (which I guess isn't really too bad of a thing) and my pitchers only did average. I finished this week 3-7-3 but am still in 2nd place, now 3 1/2 games back of first.

I dropped Chad Qualls and Howie Kendrick for Fernando Rodney and Orlando Hudson, respectively. Also, I plan on taking offers for Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki, and Chris Davis within the next few weeks.

Team 2:
Same story as team 1. I was right in the thick of things, playing a team that got dominated in Week 1, but got hammered instead. I dropped 8 out of 10 categories to bury me in 7th place, 7 1/2 games behind 1st.

I was pretty busy on the free agent market, dropping Chris Young (OF), Kevin Slowey, Ryan Zimmerman, Scott Baker, Huston Street, and Randy Winn (who I also added this week) for: Randy Winn, Jeremy Guthrie, Kevin Millwood, Travis Snider, and Manny Corpas. I am currently shopping; James Loney, Howie Kendrick, Kelly Shoppach, Carlos Villanueva, and Jeremy Guthrie.

Team 3:
This team didn't entirely suck this week, but also wasn't lights out unstoppable. I finished the week against a pretty good team with a 9-11-2 record and am now sitting in 3rd place, only 3 games out of 1st place.

I dropped Joba Chamberlain and Max Scherzer for Fernando Rodney and Joel Hanrahan (I had no closers) and am shopping arond Chris Iannetta.

Team 4:
This was easily my best team this week, the only team I had that had a winning record. I finished the week 8-4-0 and am currently in sole possesion of 1st place-a single game ahead of the two players tied for 2nd.

I dropped Kevin Slowey, Jason Motte, Vernon Wells, and Jared Weaver for Kevin Millwood, Fernando Rodney, and Manny Corpas.

I'll be back with more updates on how my teams are doing next Monday. Feel free to ask any fantasy questions!

Fantasy Note

Both Kevin Milwood and Josh Johnson are starting tomorrow. If they are still available in your league(s) it would be a wise move to pick up either one or both of them. Johnson has 20 win potential this year with an ERA in the mid to high 2's and 200+ strikeouts while Milwood could get anywhere from 15 to 18 wins with an ERA between 3 and 4 and 180 or more strikeouts.

If you can pick them up, you should probably think about doing so...

Buy Low/Sell High Canidates

I know its early in the season, but its never too early to be thinking of your teams long term success. The best way to do this? Like many things in life-buy low and sell high-meaning trade away players who are performing way better than expected (if you don't think they can keep it up) and trying to get under performing stars whose owners may be getting nervous.

The SELL HIGH group. If you own one of these players, consider trading them soon while their values are still high but if you don't, don't let go of too much for them.

• Emilio Bonifacio (2B/3B-FLA)
  
• Nick Swisher (1B/OF-NYY)
• Jack Cust (U-OAK)
• Marco Scutaro (2B/3B/SS-TOR)
• Kyle Lohse (SP-STL)
• Kevin Milwood (SP-TEX)

The BUY LOW group. If you happen to own a player on this list, just wait it out. If you don't start sending trade proposals pronto while you can still get them for cheap(er).

• Ryan Braun (OF-MIL) He has injury concerns right now, but I don't think they're too serious which is great news. The "injury" drives his value down even more.
• Mark Teixeira (1B-NYY) Also has injury concerns. Keep an eye on his injury.
• Jimmy Rollins (SS-PHI)
• Prince Fielder (1B-MIL) Started off slow last year too but ended up alright.
• Chris Iannetta (C-COL) He'll be a top 5 or 6 catcher by the end of the year.
• Brandon Webb (SP-ARI) There's no better time to steal a player than when he lands on the DL
• Cliff Lee (SP-CLE)
• Roy Oswalt (SP-HOU) Look at his 2nd half last year
• Ricky Nolasco (SP-FLA) Peter Gammons likes him-and he knows more about baseball than all of us...combined
  

Quick update on my teams.

In my first league, I finished the week undefeated, posting a 9-0-4 record and am currently sitting in 2nd place only 1/2 game behind 1st. I've dropped Jason Motte, Erik Bedard (not smart), and Lastings Miledge for Frank Fransisco, Chad Qualls, and Nelson Cruz.

The second league, I'm currently in 4th place with a 6-3-1 record, but only 1/2 game behind teams 1A, 1B, and 1C. I signed Jonny Cueto to fill in for Scott Baker who is currently on the DL and have released Manny Corpas for Aaron Harang, Jason Motte for Carlos Villanueva, Jonny Cueto for Kyle Davies, and Chris Young (OF) for Randy Winn.

The third league, I am in 2nd place with a 14-6-2 record and am only (again) 1/2 game behind first place. I picked up Aaron Harang off waivers to replace BJ Upton while he is on the DL, and dropped Jonny Cueto in favor of Florida's Chris Volstad.

In the last league, I am once again in second place by, yep, you guessed it, 1/2 game. I had a pretty solid week, finishing 7-3-2. I have dropped Joey Devine, Kevin Slowey, Jason Motte, and Wandy Rodiriguez (who I had picked up in place of BJ Upton who is on the DL) for Edwin Jackson, Jeremy Guthrie, Kevin Milwood, and Fernando Rodney, respectively.

All in all, I'd say that I am off to a very solid start in all of my leagues and I can see myself being in contention until the end of the year (lets hope).

Fantasy Baseball early season tip 2...

If your league settings allow it and there are more counting categories (wins, Ks, IP, etc) than per-inning/per-game stats (WHIP, ERA, etc) and you have a strong offense who can win you about 2/3 of your offensive categories, then you should seriously consider streaming your pitchers (adding and dropping pitchers everyday concerning who is starting that day).

It may make a couple people angry, but there is no rule against it (unless your commissioner puts a max number of IPs) and therefore is fair game. Other owners may not believe in doing this, but bottom line is winning and if streaming helps you do so, it doesn't matter if it is "not right" or not.

You have to keep this in mind though, you will more than likely lose your WHIP, ERA, and BBs each week so make sure you will gain more than you lose by streaming before you do so.

Fantasy Baseball early season tip...

Many of you may be in this scenarion right now; the first week of the season is almost complete and the 'studs' you have drafted like Jose Reyes, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Tim Lincecum etc. are doing absolutely AWFUL. So what should you do when this happens-when your big name stars are struggling so terribly?

You see, baseball is unlike any other sport on earth. The best hitter in history could go 2 weeks without getting a single hit while on the other hand some no-name scrub could get a hit in 8 straight ABs. Does that mean you should drop greatest-hitter-ever for no-name-scrub? Definitely not. Instead, just roll with it and do nothing. They will right the ship eventually.

However, if your star player has gotten around 150 ABs or 60 IP and they still are destroying your team, it may be time to trade them (but never drop them, someone will almost always be willing to trade for a big-name guy)

One thing you can do to take advantage of your impatient fellow-fantasyers is to send out trades early for any struggling superstar and see if you can get lucky.

What should you do with...

Its a short list today, but here we go...

Freddy Sanchez-3B (PIT)
Stay Away. He was a very solid hitter 2 years ago, but his play has declined ever since. He's started off the season very hot, but it won't last.

Ryan Spilborghs-OF (COL)
Keep an eye on.
He's not guaranteed any playing time, but if he gets consistent ABs, consider picking him up.

Zach Miner-P (DET)
Pick him up. I made it a point to pick him up in three of my leagues because I had a feeling that he would break through. Threw one game, I'm looking like a slight genius.

Kosuke Fukudome-OF (CHN)
Pick him up. But release him or try to trade him as soon as the All-Star break comes. Last season he batted 62 points lower and had an OPS 151 points lower in the second half than he did the first.

Yovanni Gallardo-P (MIL)
Pick him up. I can't see him being available in many leagues, but I was able to sign him in two leagues so he's worth a talk. He has dominating stuff, plain and simple.

Top under the radar players (Hitters)

A list of the players that are truly undervalued in fantasy baseball that you should consider picking up.
There will be no Pablo Sandoval's or Justin Upton's on this list-players that everyone is calling underrated so therefore...they are no longer underrated and have become overrated in fact.

CATCHER:
Kelly Shoppach (CLE)- (Available in 58% of leagues)
Will get plenty of opportunities to catch and he hit 21 HRs last season.

Jared Saltalamacchia (TEX)- (Available in 63% of leagues)
Everyone is so high on Taylor Teagarden this year that Salty has been sort of pushed to the side. He's still very young and talented so he could break out at any time.

Jesus Flores (WAS)- (Available in 93% of leagues)
Not a ton of people are familiar with him but he has produced pretty well in his 170 career big league games. He won't win you any leagues single handidly, but if one of your catchers gets injured or is struggling, have him on your radar.

FIRST BASE:
Adam LaRoche (PIT)-(Available in 60% of leagues)
Sure, he always starts out slow, but after his month or so of being far below average, he can really contribute-as evidenced by the 25 home runs he hit last season.

Todd Helton (COL)- (Available in 82% of leagues)
Did you not see the Spring he had this year? I'll be the first to tell you that spring stats are meaningless...most of the time, but I think they can be a strong indicator of someone who had a down year due to injury will perform in the upcoming season. He could be a major upgrade as your backup 1B.

SECOND BASE:
Mark Teahan (KC)- (Available in 83% of leagues)
A 27 year old who has had a couple of off years after posting a very solid 2006 campaign is a player that I would normally keep an eye on anyway. Throw in the fact that he is now moving to 2B and also has eligibility at 1B, 3B, and OF...this player could really help you out.

Ronnie Belliard (WAS)- (Available in 97% of leagues)
In 297 ABs last year, he hit 11 homers and batted .287. He is the Nationals starting second baseman. He has additional eligibility at 1B and 3B. If you are in need of some position flexibility and potential for a solid season at a shallow position, Belliard is your man.

THIRD BASE:
Chase Headley (SD)- (Available in 88% of leagues)
In about half a season's worth of ABs, he hit 9 HRs and drove in 38 runs. Now those aren't exactly what you would call starter caliber numbers, but provided you have little depth at either 3B or OF, you should seriously consider picking up Headley.

Scott Rolen (TOR)- (Available in 94% of leagues)
Yes, he more than likely will go down with some sort of injury in a month or two, but if your current third-baseman is out, A-rod and Glaus owners, you could pick Rolen up for a very solid stretch of games before the inevitable injury comes his way.

SHORTSTOP:
Jason Bartlett (TB)- (Available in 94% of leagues)
There is no real reason to own Bartlett, unless your team is in absolute dire need of steals and the shelf is completely barren of shortstops-if thats the case, then feel free picking him up.

OUTFIELD:
Adam Lind (TOR)- (Available in 56% of leagues)
But that number is probably plummeting in a hurry, and rightfully so. This kid (he's only 25) has a good makeup at the plate and has real big league power on his 6-1 215 lb frame. Drop one of your backup outfielders for this kid, you'll be glad you did.

Luke Scott (BAL)- (Available in 94% of leagues)
If your team is very average-heavy and needs a slight boost in the HR category, pick up Scott. Don't be alarmed when your team BA goes down slightly, thats to be expected with a career .226 (and sliding) hitter, but he still has solid pop in that bat.

Randy Winn (SF)- (Available in 80% of leagues)
Of the free-agent OFs, he is as close to the anti-LukeScott as you can really get. The power has all but left the bat of this 34 year old, but he is very crafty on the base paths and a solid batting average guy. Expect a .300 average and 20 or so steals with a dozen HRs tops.

David DeJesus (KC)- (Available in 84% of leagues)
A .300 hitter that reached double digit steals and homeruns, moving back to a much more natural position. Sign me up.

Andruw Jones (TEX)- (Available in 97% of leagues)
If any Ranger outfielder or DH not named Josh Hamilton should struggle out of the gate, Jones-who is in much better shape than he's been in years-would be first in line to step in and take those ABs. If he can get to 400 at-bats, I could see him hitting about 20 HRs with a .250 to .270 BA.

What should you do with...

Aaron Harang-SP (CIN):
Pick him up. He was able to hold a potent Mets lineup to 1 run despite not having his best stuff. He could net you 15 wins and 200+ Ks.

Nelson Cruz-OF (TEX):
Pick him up. This kid is quickly shaking the "Quad-A" label that had been thrust upon him earlier in his career. He's been on a tear since entering Triple-A last season and I don't see him slowing down much this year barring injury. He could easily drive in 100+ runs hitting cleanup for the Rangers.

Hank Blalock-1B/3B/DH (TEX):
Wait and see. Yes, he did hit a fairly mammoth shot today, but I'm very wary of him because of his injury history. He could hit 25 HRs this year, but then again he may only play 50 games.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia-C (TEX):
Pick him up. (If there isn't a ton of depth at catcher in your league). He has the skill set to be a very productive catcher, but he will be splitting time with another young stud in Taylor Teagarden.

Kevin Milwood-SP (TEX)
Pick him up. His numbers were greatly inflated last year thanks in part to some awful luck. He should be significantly better this year.

Felipe Lopez-2B/SS/3B/OF (ARI)
Pick him up. This super-utility player will allow you to focus more on having just the best players as backups instead of worrying about getting each position covered, and he'll provided solid average, steals, and runs while doing so.

Tony Clark-1B (ARI)
Stay away. He's not promised playing time, and has a very difficult time making contact. No thanks.

Cesar Izturis-SS (BAL)
Stay away. Had a nice first game of the season, but there's a reason he was the last batter on a well below average Baltimore team.

Emilio Bonifacio-2B/3B (FLA)
Pick him up. Only if you want a lot cheap steals, an average average, and little help in the other categories. You could do worse with a backup 2B/3B.

Paul Maholm-SP (PIT)
Pick him up. This guy was a very solid pitcher last year, and is only 26. I think he puts together a season similar to last year.

Jason Motte-RP (STL)
Pick him up. So what, he had one bad outing. This kids stuff is electric. He may get dropped by a few trigger happy owners, so pick him up and relax with the 30+ saves you just picked up.

Adam Lind-OF/DH (TOR)
Pick him up!!!! Before the season, I thought he would be the best hitter in the Blue Jays lineup, and Monday's performance didn't calm those thoughts down any. Could hit 30+ HRs this year.

Travis Snider-OF (TOR)
Stay away. The glow of a shiny new prospect is always something to ogle after, but most of the time they leave you with a major feeling of disappointment. Don't get me wrong, this kid will be great-just not this year. If you're feeling lucky though, I wouldn't try to convince you not to take him.

Thats all for today. Stay tuned for tomorrow-I'll list my top young players and have another list similar to this.

What should I do about...

Now that baseball season is finally here, it kicked off last night with a 4-1 win by the Braves over the Phillies, I will be posting a daily (or almost daily) tab of:

• Under the radar players you should keep an eye on
• Low value players who had breakthrough game(s) and whether or not you should try to get them
• High value players who are struggling and if you should try to deal them or not.
• Anything else fantasy baseball related really.

That being said, lets get to it.

Jeff Francoeur (ATL):
Stay away. Sure he hit a home run yesterday, but it really wasn't all that impressive of a blast, and it was his only hit of the game. He has tweaked some things in his stance, but I'm not sold he's back to his old self again.

Jordan Schafer (ATL):
He did hit a home run in his first big league at bat and did finish the day 2-3 with a walk. That being said, I wouldn't take the bait on him. He was a Double A player last year, and if you project his stats out to a 550 AB season, they would be: 16 Homeruns, 80 RBIs, 72 Runs, 28 Doubles, and 130 or so strikeouts. His AA numbers weren't even worthy of fantasy starting material, so why would you want that on your team?

Brett Myers (PHI):
He did give up 3 HRs yesterday and didn't have his best command, but I don't think there is any reason to freak out on him. Give him a few starts and he should be back to the Brett Myers of last year (post all star break).

Check back tonight and I'll have some more updates on today's players.

MSN Fantasy Baseball

I just got done drafting the weirdest draft I've ever been apart of. Its an 8 team MSN (head-to-head, points) league and their was two problems with this league.

1.) MSN's draft rankings are RIDICULOUS! Victor Martinez was the 42nd ranked catcher in the draft room!!!! Josh Hamilton was ranked in the 30s, Chris Davis was available in Round 18 and probably would have been around even later because you had to scroll through half of the third base pool to find him.

2.) I don't think anyone except for me and one other person knew what the crap we were doing so I was able to get a lot of those players that the rankings hid...

*The commissioner changed the draft time the night before to 9:30 AM so i missed the first 11 picks, but here is my draft

1/7: Matt Holliday (Would have picked Pujos, yes he was still there)
2/10: Lance Berkman (would have picked Ryan Braun)
3/13: Josh Hamilton (good with this one)
4/26: Jimmy Rollins (good)
5/29: Ichiro (would have picked Ian Kinsler)
6/42: Magglio Ordonez (would have picked Nick Markakis)
7/45: Derek Lee (would have picked BJ Upton)
8/58: Jermaine Dye (would have picked Brian McCann)
9/71: Chad Billingsly (would have picked Evan Longoria)
10/74: Carlos Delgado (would have picked Felix Hernandez)
11/87: Andy Pettitte (would have picked Geovany Soto)

and now for when I started drafting, and who I would be picking
if I was there for the entire draft

12/90: Brandon Phillips (Brandon Phillips) -ranked 95!?
13/103: Carl Crawford (Carl Crawford) ranked 108!?
14/106: Matt Cain (Fransisco Liriano) I didn't see that Liriano was available because I didn't scroll down enough
15/119: Troy Glaus (Jay Bruce)
16/122: Zack Grienke (Erik Bedard)
17/135: Victor Martinez (same) WOW....
18/138: Chris Davis (same)...
19/151: Pablo Sandoval (same)
20/154: Stephen Drew (same)
21/167: Howie Kendrick (Jonathan Broxton)
22/170: John Danks (Carlos Marmol)
23/183: James Loney (same)
24/186: Heath Bell (same)

I am currently working on trading Jermaine Dye, Carlos Delgado, Andy Pettitte, and Troy Glaus