Due to either struggles or injuries, the following closers may be available in your leagues, they should turn it around soon so try picking them up.
Kerry Wood-CLE
He's been very un-Kerry Wood like this season, but that could just be because he is in a new league. He is far too talented to continue to struggle like this.
Jose Valverde-HOU
Valverde hasn't been great this year, and he is currently on the DL, but it won't surprise me if he ends the season with 30+ saves.
Brian Fuentes-LAA
Fuentes is in a similar boat to Kerry Wood, struggles mainly due to being in a new league. He does already have 8 saves so it may be harder to pry him away, but if you can, you could be rewarded with 50 or so saves seeing how the Angels like to use their closers.
Brad Lidge-PHI
When things are going bad for Brad as they are now, its beyond ugly, but when he is on, he's one of the games best. I think he will turn this around shortly and be back to being dominant.
Showing posts with label strategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label strategy. Show all posts
Sunday, May 10, 2009
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Fantasy Football: Impact Rookies
Every year, a handful of rookies come from the digs of college football bust on to the NFL scene and contribute greatly to many a fantasy football championship. Some of these players are well known commodities like Adrian Peterson and Matt Ryan, while others like Marques Colston and Brandon Jacobs come out of nowhere to sweep us off our feet.
Below is a list of rookies that could have a significant impact
Quarterbacks (ranked from most likely success to least)
Matthew Stafford-Detroit Lions
Mark Sanchez- New York Jets
The only two quarterbacks that I see having any fantasy relevance this year are the big two, Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez. That being said, I don't see Sanchez getting into many games at all this year as I see Rex Ryan taking a more controlled approach to this rookie.
Stafford on the other hand may be forced into action early, maybe even week 6 or so, because the Lions have a little less than nothing to offer from the QB position.
Don't go too crazy though, wait until the later rounds to nab either of these guys or better yet, try to either sign them off the waiver wire when/if they are announced to start.
Runningbacks
Chris Wells (ARI)
Knowshon Moreno (DEN)
LeSean McCoy (PHI)
Donald Brown (IND)
Andre Brown (NYG)
James Davis (CLE)
Chris Wells will get every opportunity to produce, as he is easily the most talented runner on the Cardinals. He could get 300+ touches and double digit TDs. He's going around Round 9 or 10 in early mocks-which I think is far too low
Knowshon finds himself in a difficult situation, as he is playing for a coach that likes to pass a lot (who comes from a coach who is a fan of the Runningback by Committee), and is in a 6 or 7 deep backfield. He is their most talented back though so he should receive 50 or so percent of the carries. He is going in round 6 or 7 in early mocks, which would be solid value for him
With the recent news of yet another Westbrook surgery and the subtraction of Correll Buckhalter, McCoy's value is rising steadily. Any of the inevitable injuries to Westbrook and McCoy will be fantasy gold. Consider using a late round target on him.
Donald Brown is coming into a situation where he will split carries with Joseph Addai. I think Addai will bounce back and I also think Brown is a tad overrated so I'm projecting maybe 500 yards, tops.
Andre Brown will be taking over the "wind" part of the Giants running game which got Derrick Ward 1000 yards last year, so consider looking for him on the waiver wire later on in the season
James Davis is worth keeping an eye on as he steps into a very bad running "attack" in Cleveland, and therefore could manage to muster up a few carries.
Wide Receivers
Percy Harvin (MIN)
Michael Crabtree (SF)
Hakeem Nicks (NYG)
Deon Butler (SEA)
Jeremy Maclin (PHI)
Tiquan Underwood (JAX)
The rookie WR I feel will contribute most from day 1 is Percy Harvin from Florida. He won't net a ton of receptions- maybe 50 or 60, but he will receive a fair amount of carries in addition to those receptions. He's going between round 14 and 16 on average, which sounds about right to me.
Michael Crabtree down the line will be a dominating presence from the receiver position, that being said though, I don't like him this year due to him coming from an extreme spread option and the QB situation in San Fran isn't exactly great. People are expecting big things right away, but be smart, let someone else fall for it this year, then snatch him up the following year.
The Giants have many receivers on their roster that can have some fantasy relevance, but outside of Hakeem Nicks, they lack a big, strong receiver. He won't produce Pro Bowl numbers off the bat, but could contribute in a deep league.
Deon Butler is a small, quick receiver who I think could thrive in an offense like Seattle's, he could contribute a few solid games this year, but he probably shouldn't be drafted.
Jeremy Maclin was an intriguing pick for Philly, seeing as they have a similar young receiver in DeSean Jackson. I don't see Maclin contributing like Jackson did as a rookie though because he is so raw right now.
Call me crazy, but I think Tiquan Underwood from Rutgers could do some damage this year. He's a burner with a little height entering a very shallow receiving group in Jacksonville.
Tight Ends
Brandon Pettigrew (DET)
Cornelius Ingram (PHI)
While many people think Pettigrew will step in and be an immediate receiving impact, they should take into account the fact that Detriot's O-line is terrible and they will be in need of Pettigrew's blocking prowess to slow down the opponent's rush on pass plays. He still could manage 40 or 50 catches though, which could be worthy of a late round selection.
Cornelius Ingram dropped in the draft because of concerns over his ACL, but he is now in a TE friendly scheme in Philly and should reap the benefits of that. 50 receptions isn't entirely out of the question, although he does have some competion in Brent Celek.
Below is a list of rookies that could have a significant impact
Quarterbacks (ranked from most likely success to least)
Matthew Stafford-Detroit Lions
Mark Sanchez- New York Jets
The only two quarterbacks that I see having any fantasy relevance this year are the big two, Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez. That being said, I don't see Sanchez getting into many games at all this year as I see Rex Ryan taking a more controlled approach to this rookie.
Stafford on the other hand may be forced into action early, maybe even week 6 or so, because the Lions have a little less than nothing to offer from the QB position.
Don't go too crazy though, wait until the later rounds to nab either of these guys or better yet, try to either sign them off the waiver wire when/if they are announced to start.
Runningbacks
Chris Wells (ARI)
Knowshon Moreno (DEN)
LeSean McCoy (PHI)
Donald Brown (IND)
Andre Brown (NYG)
James Davis (CLE)
Chris Wells will get every opportunity to produce, as he is easily the most talented runner on the Cardinals. He could get 300+ touches and double digit TDs. He's going around Round 9 or 10 in early mocks-which I think is far too low
Knowshon finds himself in a difficult situation, as he is playing for a coach that likes to pass a lot (who comes from a coach who is a fan of the Runningback by Committee), and is in a 6 or 7 deep backfield. He is their most talented back though so he should receive 50 or so percent of the carries. He is going in round 6 or 7 in early mocks, which would be solid value for him
With the recent news of yet another Westbrook surgery and the subtraction of Correll Buckhalter, McCoy's value is rising steadily. Any of the inevitable injuries to Westbrook and McCoy will be fantasy gold. Consider using a late round target on him.
Donald Brown is coming into a situation where he will split carries with Joseph Addai. I think Addai will bounce back and I also think Brown is a tad overrated so I'm projecting maybe 500 yards, tops.
Andre Brown will be taking over the "wind" part of the Giants running game which got Derrick Ward 1000 yards last year, so consider looking for him on the waiver wire later on in the season
James Davis is worth keeping an eye on as he steps into a very bad running "attack" in Cleveland, and therefore could manage to muster up a few carries.
Wide Receivers
Percy Harvin (MIN)
Michael Crabtree (SF)
Hakeem Nicks (NYG)
Deon Butler (SEA)
Jeremy Maclin (PHI)
Tiquan Underwood (JAX)
The rookie WR I feel will contribute most from day 1 is Percy Harvin from Florida. He won't net a ton of receptions- maybe 50 or 60, but he will receive a fair amount of carries in addition to those receptions. He's going between round 14 and 16 on average, which sounds about right to me.
Michael Crabtree down the line will be a dominating presence from the receiver position, that being said though, I don't like him this year due to him coming from an extreme spread option and the QB situation in San Fran isn't exactly great. People are expecting big things right away, but be smart, let someone else fall for it this year, then snatch him up the following year.
The Giants have many receivers on their roster that can have some fantasy relevance, but outside of Hakeem Nicks, they lack a big, strong receiver. He won't produce Pro Bowl numbers off the bat, but could contribute in a deep league.
Deon Butler is a small, quick receiver who I think could thrive in an offense like Seattle's, he could contribute a few solid games this year, but he probably shouldn't be drafted.
Jeremy Maclin was an intriguing pick for Philly, seeing as they have a similar young receiver in DeSean Jackson. I don't see Maclin contributing like Jackson did as a rookie though because he is so raw right now.
Call me crazy, but I think Tiquan Underwood from Rutgers could do some damage this year. He's a burner with a little height entering a very shallow receiving group in Jacksonville.
Tight Ends
Brandon Pettigrew (DET)
Cornelius Ingram (PHI)
While many people think Pettigrew will step in and be an immediate receiving impact, they should take into account the fact that Detriot's O-line is terrible and they will be in need of Pettigrew's blocking prowess to slow down the opponent's rush on pass plays. He still could manage 40 or 50 catches though, which could be worthy of a late round selection.
Cornelius Ingram dropped in the draft because of concerns over his ACL, but he is now in a TE friendly scheme in Philly and should reap the benefits of that. 50 receptions isn't entirely out of the question, although he does have some competion in Brent Celek.
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
BABIP
For people who are looking for some way to project near future fantasy success of players, BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is a huge stat to keep an eye on as many of you probably know. However, if you dig a little deeper into the BABIP stat, breaking it down as much as possible and studying previous tendencies, you will be even better off.
This page here is an amazing compilation of varying BABIP stats for both pitchers and hitters, such as BABIP on groundballs, line drives, fly balls, and overall. It also includes the respective players stats in those categories for last season so you can see how the player is doing to his last years numbers and gives you the HR/Fly Ball %.
So if you really want a leg up on the competition, check out that link (by Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN.com) and start making some moves based on those stats!
This page here is an amazing compilation of varying BABIP stats for both pitchers and hitters, such as BABIP on groundballs, line drives, fly balls, and overall. It also includes the respective players stats in those categories for last season so you can see how the player is doing to his last years numbers and gives you the HR/Fly Ball %.
So if you really want a leg up on the competition, check out that link (by Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN.com) and start making some moves based on those stats!
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Don't listen to it!
Earlier today, I was on ESPN.com's fantasy baseball site reading up on some stuff when I came across an Eric Karabell page. Now normally I am a big fan of his, but the page I read today I really have to disagree with.
He was writing about how you have to stay with your stars in the early season no matter what, meaning that even if your stars are struggling, keep them in your starting lineup so you dont miss their breakout game. He goes on to write about how back in 2003, an opposing manager in his league for the first time benched the struggling Shawn Green when he had his 4 home run, 7 RBI game and Karabell ended up beating that owner and winning the league by 3 RBIs.
It sounds like a smart move, but don't don't DON'T fall for it. If that owner would have benched Green earlier in the year, he could have picked up 8 to 10 more RBIs by making a shrewd waiver wire pickup, then starting Green once he got back in to the swing of things. If he would have followed this strategty, he would have won his league by 5 to 7 RBIs instead of finishing 2nd.
I am currently doing this in all of my leagues, sitting big name players such as Mark Teixeira, Jimmy Rollins, BJ Upton, and Brandon Phillips in exchange for lesser name players who are producing way out of their mind right now. Once my stars turn it around, they will definitely be back in my lineup, but I find it foolish to stick to your guns just because of their names.
Speaking of that...I may be posting soon about the importance of not following names in fantasy sports some time soon...
He was writing about how you have to stay with your stars in the early season no matter what, meaning that even if your stars are struggling, keep them in your starting lineup so you dont miss their breakout game. He goes on to write about how back in 2003, an opposing manager in his league for the first time benched the struggling Shawn Green when he had his 4 home run, 7 RBI game and Karabell ended up beating that owner and winning the league by 3 RBIs.
It sounds like a smart move, but don't don't DON'T fall for it. If that owner would have benched Green earlier in the year, he could have picked up 8 to 10 more RBIs by making a shrewd waiver wire pickup, then starting Green once he got back in to the swing of things. If he would have followed this strategty, he would have won his league by 5 to 7 RBIs instead of finishing 2nd.
I am currently doing this in all of my leagues, sitting big name players such as Mark Teixeira, Jimmy Rollins, BJ Upton, and Brandon Phillips in exchange for lesser name players who are producing way out of their mind right now. Once my stars turn it around, they will definitely be back in my lineup, but I find it foolish to stick to your guns just because of their names.
Speaking of that...I may be posting soon about the importance of not following names in fantasy sports some time soon...
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